As Major League Baseball approaches the official end of the All-Star break, with the New York Mets set to face the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at 7 pm, fans and fantasy baseball players alike are gearing up for the intense second half of the season. While tonight's game technically marks the conclusion of the break, the full slate of games involving all 30 teams will not begin until Friday, signaling the true start of the summer stretch run. Ahead of this critical phase, it's a perfect time to evaluate which players are poised for breakout performances and which may struggle, providing valuable insight for fans, fantasy managers, and teams alike.
Before diving into the list of potential second-half risers and fallers, let's catch up on some notable recent developments across the league that could impact the remainder of the season.
One of the biggest storylines involves Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves, who is expected to return from a hamstring injury that marks his fifth stint on the injured list with leg-related issues over the past three seasons. While there are legitimate concerns about how much he will be able to run, given his history of lower-body injuries, there is little doubt about his ability to produce offensively once healthy.
Despite a somewhat underwhelming start to 2024, his underlying metrics paint a more encouraging picture. Acuña's average exit velocity and overall contact quality have dipped, yet he has compensated somewhat by making more contact at the plate. His expected weighted on-base average (wOBA) currently stands at.378, which, although below his usual elite level, surpasses the.351 wOBA he has actually posted.
While it's unlikely he will replicate his previous 40-steal pace, a strong offensive rebound is highly anticipated as long as he stays healthy.
Turning to pitching prospects, one name generating considerable excitement is Logan Anderson of the Seattle Mariners. Anderson has dominated in his first professional season, jumping directly from college ball in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) to Double-A, where he has posted an extraordinary 1.36 ERA over 72.2 innings. His strikeout rate sits at an impressive 41.4%, complemented by a minuscule 3.8% walk rate.
His combined strikeout-minus-walk rate of 37.5% is the highest among all pitchers with at least 70 innings in the minors this year, far ahead of the next best mark of 25.3%. Despite this dominance, the Mariners face a roster conundrum: there is no obvious spot for Anderson in the major league rotation, even if the team were to trade established starter Luis Castillo. The Mariners also tend to limit time at their Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma, due to the Pacific Coast League's notoriously difficult pitching environment.
Given that the Mariners are currently sitting just below.500, it would make sense for them to test Anderson's dominance at the big-league level sooner rather than later. It seems likely that the rotation spot issue will resolve itself, either through a trade or roster adjustment.
Another pitcher worth noting is Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants. Although his 4.23 ERA this season appears disappointing, a deeper look reveals that luck has played a significant role in inflating this number. Webb's underlying performance metrics, including expected ERA (xERA), suggest he has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. His xERA has risen from 3.07 last year to 3.51 this season, indicating a slight decline in skill but nothing close to the current ERA level. His groundball and strikeout rates have dipped modestly, but nothing drastic enough to explain the disparity. If Webb can regain his luck or improve slightly, an ERA below 3.00 in the second half is more likely than a repeat of the current inflated figure.
The second half of the season is also notable for the impact of the trade deadline, particularly concerning bullpen roles and closing opportunities. Many of the league's least competitive teams, such as the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants, currently have weak bullpens, limiting the pool of impactful closers available for trade. However, one reliever who stands out as a strong candidate to change roles through a trade is Drew Weaver of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Mets have already indicated that Weaver will not close for them, as they have committed to Devin Williams in that role, recently extending his contract. This makes Weaver, who boasts an excellent 1.85 ERA and remains under contract through 2027, an attractive acquisition target for contenders in need of bullpen help. While it's not guaranteed Weaver will close immediately upon being traded, his talent and track record position him as one of the better setup men who could flourish as an elite closer if given the opportunity.
On the hitting side, there are intriguing prospects and young players to watch as they try to establish themselves or rebound from early struggles. Brandon Waldschmidt, a 23-year-old outfielder, experienced a disappointing initial stint in the majors, largely due to an excessively high 34% strikeout rate. While Waldschmidt possesses considerable raw power, he will need to make adjustments at the plate to reduce strikeouts and maximize contact quality.
In the minors, he posted an impressive near-.900 OPS, hitting 15 home runs and stealing 25 bases in just 117 games across Double-A and Triple-A. Ranked among the top 50 prospects before his promotion, Waldschmidt's skill set suggests he could be a valuable fantasy asset if he can lower his strikeout rate closer to the 22% he managed in Triple-A. There is reason to be optimistic that he can make these improvements in the second half.
In a different category, some pitchers are outperforming expectations to a degree that strains credibility, signaling a strong likelihood of regression. Among these is Anthony Rodriguez, who currently holds the fourth-best ERA among qualifying starters. However, his underlying stats tell a different story: he has one of the lowest strikeout rates and one of the highest walk rates in this group, which is unusual for a pitcher with such a low ERA.
His expected weighted on-base average on contact is among the worst in the league, showing that hitters are making solid contact against him. This disconnect suggests Rodriguez is benefiting from luck or other unsustainable factors, and his current success is unlikely to continue. Fantasy owners and teams would be wise to approach him with caution, as his ERA is expected to rise sharply, potentially damaging ratios and overall value.
Another pitcher to monitor is Eric Meyer, who has leaned heavily on his pair of breaking balls-his slider and an increasingly effective "sweeper" pitch-to great effect. While his 2.58 ERA is impressive, there is reason to believe he has been fortunate so far. His expected ERA of 3.79 indicates some luck, and he has become more flyball prone, which could backfire if the ballpark or opposing hitters exploit that tendency. Meyer is also approaching a career-high in innings pitched for the year, which raises durability concerns. Given these factors, Meyer is considered a regression candidate whose performance may dip in the second half.
On the offensive side, some players who have enjoyed recent hot streaks may struggle to sustain their elevated production. Alec Marsh of the Philadelphia Phillies, for example, showed a strong.949 OPS in June despite striking out 33% of the time. However, his July performance dipped significantly, with a.179 batting average and.273 on-base percentage before the break.
Marsh has benefited from facing left-handed pitchers more often recently, but his on-base percentage against lefties has slipped below.273, raising concerns. If he continues to struggle, the Phillies may reduce his playing time against lefties, which would limit his counting stats. Marsh's value largely depends on maintaining unusually high batting averages, and his underlying power metrics don't fully support his home run totals, suggesting regression is likely.
While Marsh remains a useful player, he is not yet a must-start option and may see his production decline.
Similarly, Jose Lopez is enjoying a breakout season, with career-best expected batting average (.290) and expected wOBA (.336). However, his actual performance has outpaced these underlying metrics, making him a top-10 fantasy hitter this year. Given that his underlying stats suggest he is a solid but not elite hitter, it is likely that Lopez will regress and perhaps settle into a mid-tier fantasy option rather than a superstar. This makes the present a prime opportunity for fantasy managers to trade him while his value is high.
Lastly, Austin Moniak of the Colorado Rockies presents a challenging case. His overall numbers since joining the Rockies last season are strong, hitting.272 with a.313 on-base percentage and a.537 slugging percentage, comparable to players like Byron Buxton. However, his splits show he struggles significantly away from Coors Field, posting just a.231 average on the road and poor numbers against left-handed pitching.
Given that the Rockies play half their games at Coors Field, Moniak's production is buoyed by the hitter-friendly environment. The team also faces an outfield logjam and Moniak, at 28 years old, does not have a clear long-term role. The Rockies may look to trade him, but his value is questionable outside of the Coors Field context.
Fantasy owners should be cautious, as his numbers are unlikely to translate well elsewhere and could decline in the second half.
In summary, as the MLB season transitions into its critical second half, there are numerous players who could either make significant positive impacts or disappoint based on their underlying skills and recent trends. Ronald Acuña Jr. is expected to return to form if healthy, while pitching prospect Logan Anderson looks poised for a possible major league promotion despite roster uncertainties. Logan Webb's struggles appear more related to bad luck than skill, suggesting a bounce-back is likely. Drew Weaver could become a valuable closer via trade, making him a player to watch. Meanwhile, Brandon Waldschmidt offers upside if he can reduce strikeouts and adjust his approach at the plate.
Conversely, some players seem destined for regression. Anthony Rodriguez's impressive ERA is not supported by his peripheral stats, making him a risky fantasy asset. Eric Meyer's low ERA may be partly due to luck and an increased flyball rate, raising concerns about sustainability. Alec Marsh and Jose Lopez have shown flashes of brilliance but may not maintain their current production levels, making them potential sell-high candidates. Austin Moniak's value is heavily tied to Coors Field, and his struggles elsewhere make his fantasy worth uncertain.
For fantasy baseball managers and fans alike, these insights into breakout candidates and regression risks can inform lineup decisions, trades, and expectations as the season intensifies. With the trade deadline looming and teams jockeying for playoff positioning, the next few weeks promise to be an exciting and pivotal period in the 2024 MLB season.