Between June 1 and July 14, 2026, Telangana experienced significant rainfall deficits, with only five of its districts receiving normal rainfall levels. The remaining 27 districts faced below-normal precipitation, and one district was categorized under 'large deficit' rainfall. This rainfall shortfall has had a direct impact on groundwater levels, which in June 2026 were observed to have declined in 18 districts compared to the same month in the previous year. Moreover, groundwater levels are expected to fall further if the predicted 30% rainfall deficit continues through August 2026.
In response to these challenges, the Telangana state government released the 'El Niño Contingency Plan Vanakalam 2026' on July 16, 2026. The plan was unveiled by State Agriculture Minister Tummala Nageswara Rao and is intended to guide farmers through the stresses caused by deficient rainfall, shrinking groundwater reserves, low reservoir levels, and the anticipated adverse effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon. The contingency plan was collaboratively prepared by the Department of Agriculture, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research - Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (ICAR-CRIDA), and the State Agricultural Universities.
The plan highlights the critical dependency of Telangana's agriculture on the southwest monsoon, which accounts for approximately 80% of the region's annual rainfall. The southwest monsoon is vital for rainfed agricultural areas, where the timing, distribution, and volume of rainfall significantly influence crop productivity. However, climate variability linked with El Niño often disrupts these patterns, causing delayed monsoon onset, extended dry spells, uneven rainfall distribution, premature withdrawal of the monsoon, or intense rainfall events. Such disruptions adversely affect crop establishment and yields.
Given the current rainfall trends and forecasts, Telangana is expected to receive overall normal to slightly below-normal rainfall for the monsoon season, but with considerable spatial variability. Some northern and southern districts are predicted to experience more pronounced rainfall deficits. This forecast has prompted the government to recommend several measures to mitigate the impact of these climatic challenges on agriculture during the Vanakalam (Khariff) cropping season.
Farmers are advised to adopt less water-intensive crops and avoid expanding the cultivation area of crops that require significant water inputs. Instead, they should prioritize short-duration and drought-tolerant crop varieties that are better suited to withstand dry spells. The plan also encourages rainwater harvesting to augment water availability. Additionally, farmers are urged to stay informed by monitoring weather forecasts and advisories issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Telangana State government.
Importantly, the contingency plan provides district-specific recommendations, including suggested contingency crops and improved management practices for major crops to counter the adverse effects of El Niño. These measures aim to ensure sustainable agricultural production despite the challenging climatic conditions.
Water resource management is a central concern outlined in the plan. The current storage levels in Telangana's irrigation reservoirs are alarmingly low. Most major, medium, and minor reservoirs have water levels at or near their Minimum Draw Down Level (MDDL), the lowest level at which water can be effectively withdrawn. Specifically, in the Godavari river basin, all major and medium reservoirs collectively hold only about 27.69 thousand million cubic feet (TMC) of utilizable storage. Similarly, in the Krishna basin, all reservoirs have a combined utilizable storage of just 14.81 TMC. At these minimal storage levels, available live water is predominantly reserved for essential needs such as drinking water supply, severely limiting the water available for irrigation purposes.
Consequently, unless substantial inflows occur during the remainder of the monsoon season, the potential for irrigation releases from these reservoirs is highly constrained. This limitation could negatively impact crop irrigation and overall agricultural output in the state.
To reduce climate-related agricultural risks and bolster production, the contingency plan stresses the need for district-specific crop planning. It advocates for diversification of crops toward pulses, oilseeds, and millets, which are generally more resilient to water stress. Efficient water management techniques and soil moisture conservation practices are recommended to maximize the utility of limited water resources. Furthermore, timely dissemination of weather advisories based on IMD forecasts is considered crucial for enabling farmers to make informed decisions.
In summary, Telangana's agricultural sector faces considerable challenges in 2026 due to deficient rainfall, declining groundwater, low reservoir storage, and the looming impact of El Niño. The state government's El Niño Contingency Plan Vanakalam 2026 outlines strategic guidance aimed at minimizing damage to crops and livelihoods. By encouraging water-efficient cropping patterns, promoting drought-resistant varieties, enhancing water conservation efforts, and providing timely weather information, the plan seeks to help farmers navigate an unpredictable monsoon season and sustain agricultural productivity despite adverse climatic conditions.