The island nation of Cuba has recently endured another severe blow to its already fragile infrastructure—a nationwide blackout lasting a full 24 hours. This latest energy crisis has intensified the island's ongoing struggles and has drawn renewed attention from the United States government. In a series of comments made shortly after the blackout, former US President Donald Trump signaled that Cuba is poised to become a central focus of his administration’s regional strategy, suggesting that significant political change on the island is imminent.
On Thursday, standing alongside the Inter Miami soccer team—co-owned by Cuban-born business magnate Jorge Mas—Trump spoke confidently about the future of Cuba. Addressing Mas directly, Trump said it was “just a question of time” before change would come to the island and that Cuban authorities were eager to negotiate a deal with the US. Mas responded optimistically, describing the prospect as “an amazing day.” These remarks were followed up in a Friday interview with CNN, where Trump predicted, “Cuba is gonna fall pretty soon,” and indicated that negotiations might soon involve high-level US officials, specifically mentioning Senator Marco Rubio’s potential involvement.
Although Trump noted that the US administration’s current primary focus remains on Iran, he emphasized that Cuba has been ready for change “after 50 years,” hinting at a long-standing desire within the US government to see a shift in Cuba’s political landscape. While the exact timeline for any meaningful developments remains unclear, these statements underscore the administration’s intention to maintain, if not intensify, pressure on the Cuban government.
The suggestion that US Secretary of State—or a senior official like Rubio—might physically travel to Cuba for direct talks is noteworthy. Such a move would be unprecedented given the historically strained relations between the two countries since the Cold War era. However, this year has already seen unexpected political upheavals in Latin America, including the forcible removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, an event that has far-reaching implications for Cuba given the close ties between the two nations.
Cuba’s ongoing energy crisis is directly linked to the US-backed political changes in Venezuela. After Maduro’s ouster, Cuba lost its main source of crude oil, which had been supplied by Venezuela for years. Efforts by Cuba to secure alternative energy partners have faltered, particularly because other regional players like Mexico have been unable or unwilling to fill the supply gap left by Venezuela. Consequently, Cuba’s energy infrastructure, which largely depends on Soviet-era technology and oil imports, is struggling to meet the country’s needs.
The impact of this fuel shortage is visible throughout the island. Garbage collection has been severely disrupted, with only a few state-operated garbage trucks functioning. This failure has led to large piles of uncollected rubbish accumulating in the streets, prompting some residents to burn trash at night in a desperate attempt to manage the waste. The resulting smoke exacerbates public health concerns amid fears of a looming crisis.
In Havana and other urban centers, even wealthier residents have resorted to cooking with firewood during power outages, a stark indicator of the severity of the fuel and electricity shortages. The blackouts have crippled not only household electricity but also the operation of generators, which many Cubans rely on as backup power sources. Few households possess alternative energy solutions such as solar panels, leaving most dependent on the island’s deteriorating electrical grid.
The thermo-electric plants that generate much of Cuba’s electricity are unable to operate effectively without sufficient crude oil, further deepening the crisis. This chronic lack of energy and fuel is undermining daily life across the island, affecting transportation, public services, and the broader economy.
Against this backdrop, Trump and Senator Rubio have made it clear that they do not intend to ease the economic and political pressure on Cuba. Their strategy appears focused on maintaining a hardline stance to weaken the Cuban government’s negotiating position. Critics of this approach argue that it disproportionately harms ordinary Cuban citizens rather than the leadership, raising ethical concerns about whether the aim is to provoke internal dissent or an uprising by exacerbating public suffering.
Despite rumors of secret negotiations between the US administration and Cuban officials, the Cuban government has neither confirmed nor denied these reports. It is believed that Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former revolutionary leader Raúl Castro, has acted as a key point of contact in Havana. This suggests that any discussions are taking place at the highest levels of Cuba’s political hierarchy.
In response to the worsening fuel crisis, the Cuban government has taken limited steps to empower the private sector by authorizing