The UFC returns to Las Vegas this week with an exciting event headlined by a highly anticipated rematch between lightweights Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. This fight, scheduled to take place at the T-Mobile Arena, will see Holloway looking to defend his symbolic UFC “BMF” (Baddest Mother F**ker) title, while Oliveira aims to build on his recent momentum following an impressive submission victory over Mateusz Gamrot. The main card is set to begin at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a simulcast on CBS airing from 8 to 10 p.m. ET.
Max Holloway, a seasoned veteran with a professional career dating back to 2010, brings a wealth of experience to the Octagon. The 34-year-old American fighter, nicknamed “Blessed,” made his UFC debut in 2012 and quickly rose to prominence by capturing the interim featherweight title at UFC 206 in 2016. Holloway has a record of 27 wins and 8 losses and is known for his relentless fighting style, boasting 12 knockout wins, 2 submissions, and 13 decision victories. He has successfully defended his UFC featherweight title three times and holds the third-most title fight wins in the division’s history. Recently, Holloway moved back up to the lightweight division, capturing a unanimous decision win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 in July 2025, further proving his versatility and skill across weight classes.
On the other side of the cage stands Charles Oliveira, a 36-year-old Brazilian fighter renowned for his exceptional grappling and finishing ability. Oliveira, who has competed in featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight divisions, holds an impressive professional record of 36 wins, 11 losses, and one no contest. A fourth-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Oliveira has earned a reputation as one of the most dangerous submission artists in UFC history, holding the record for the most finishes (21) and most submissions (17) in the organization. He is a former UFC lightweight champion with one successful title defense to his name. Oliveira’s dynamic skill set has earned him multiple UFC accolades, including four Fight of the Night bonuses and a remarkable 14 Performance of the Night awards. His recent submission victory over Mateusz Gamrot was a testament to his relentless pursuit of finishing fights and earned him yet another Performance of the Night honor.
The main event between Holloway and Oliveira is shaping up to be a compelling matchup, with betting odds currently favoring Holloway at -215 (risk $215 to win $100), while Oliveira is positioned as the underdog at +165. This fight promises to showcase contrasting styles — Holloway’s striking volume and pace against Oliveira’s elite grappling and submission skills — making it a must-watch for fight fans and bettors alike.
The co-main event also features a highly competitive middleweight bout between Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder. Borralho, with a record of 17 wins and 2 losses, is favored at -250 to secure the victory, while De Ridder is the underdog at +205. This matchup adds depth to an already stacked UFC 326 card, which includes seven preliminary fights and four early preliminaries, offering fans a full night of mixed martial arts action.
For those interested in betting on UFC 326, expert analysis and predictions are available from Mike McClure’s advanced computer model, which uses sophisticated simulations to forecast fight outcomes. McClure’s model runs 10,000 simulations per fight, evaluating dynamic win probabilities, round-by-round finish likelihoods, and fighter-specific tendencies such as striking power, grappling proficiency, and endurance. This comprehensive approach accounts for factors like damage accumulation and finishing styles, making it a valuable tool for bettors looking to gain an edge.
The model has been backtested against over 500 fights from 2023 to 2025 and has demonstrated a strong track record, generating more than 18 units of profit and a 6.1% return on investment in UFC betting. It has also made accurate picks in recent events, such as correctly predicting Justin Gaethje’s outright win at UFC 324 and the over on total rounds in the main event. For UFC 326, the model has provided detailed picks and betting advice, highlighting several underdog opportunities and a best bet that offers returns above +200 odds.
One notable pick from the model for the