This year, the U.S. turkey population has reached its lowest point in 40 years, largely due to outbreaks of bird flu and another virus affecting turkeys, avian metapneumovirus. These diseases have had a significant impact on turkey farmers nationwide, with more than 2 million turkeys lost to bird flu alone over the past three months. The reduced supply has, in turn, pushed wholesale turkey prices up sharply and affected the overall cost of Thanksgiving meals across the country.
Larry Doll, a farmer at Old Brick Farm near Detroit, Michigan, has managed to escape these outbreaks on his small family farm, which raises chickens, turkeys, and ducks. Doll’s farm, which has been in his family for five generations, has remained free of bird flu and avian metapneumovirus thanks to strict biosecurity measures. Doll emphasizes the importance of keeping the operation clean and limiting contact with other farms to reduce the risk of infection. Even though his farm avoided the diseases, Doll still felt the pinch of a shrinking turkey population. The hatchery where he orders turkey chicks had fewer available this year. Doll has had to order his chicks much earlier than usual to secure them, planning to get more hatchlings in July for next year’s season. “If you don’t get your order in early, you’re not going to get it,” he said.
The reduction in turkey numbers has led to a predicted 44% increase in wholesale turkey prices this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Despite this spike, many grocery stores are offering discounts or even free turkeys to help ease the financial burden on consumers during the holiday season. However, although turkey prices might be somewhat mitigated at retail, the cost of other ingredients for a traditional Thanksgiving meal has not followed suit. For example, tariffs on imported steel have raised the prices of canned goods, which are staple items in many holiday dishes.
As of mid-November, a basket of 11 common Thanksgiving staples—including a 10-pound frozen turkey, potatoes, stuffing, and canned vegetables—cost $58.81 on average, representing a 4.1% increase from last year. This rise exceeds the general increase in food prices eaten at home, which was 2.7% in September according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, pricing Thanksgiving meals is not straightforward, and different market research firms report varying costs. Datasembly, a market research company that surveys prices from 150,000 U.S. stores weekly, found a slight 2% decline in retail turkey prices as of November 17. Meanwhile, the American Farm Bureau Federation’s survey, which relies on volunteer shoppers nationwide, estimated that a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 this year would cost $55.16—5% less than last year. Another estimate from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute put the cost closer to $80 for the same meal, using store-brand products, which is 2% to 3% lower than last year’s estimate.
Retailers have also been trying to attract customers with competitive pricing on Thanksgiving meals. Discount grocer Aldi promoted a $40 meal for 10 people featuring 21 items, while Kroger offered a menu of store-brand products that would feed 10 for under $50. Earlier in November, former President Donald Trump highlighted Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket as being 25% cheaper than the previous year. However, this decrease was largely due to Walmart including fewer items and a different assortment in their basket compared to last year. David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, explained that many retailers are implementing promotions to draw customers into their stores despite rising wholesale prices.
The wholesale price of turkeys has indeed risen dramatically. By the second week of November, prices for frozen hens weighing 8 to 16 pounds averaged $1.77 per pound—an 81% increase compared to the same period last year. Avian viruses are the main reason for the supply shortage, but increased consumer demand has also played a role. As prices for other meats, such as beef, have risen significantly, more consumers are turning to turkey as a more affordable protein option. For instance, beef prices were up 14% in September compared to the previous year. Mark Jordan, executive director of Leap Market Analytics, noted that many people are avoiding expensive steak cuts, which can cost upwards of $30 a pound, and opting for turkey instead.