In the autumn of 2021, a seemingly benign moment in Kabul—a cup of tea shared between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Faiz Hameed, and Taliban representatives—marked a high point in Pakistan’s long-standing relationship with the Taliban. At that time, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan was broadly seen as a geopolitical win for Islamabad, which had historically nurtured the group as a strategic proxy in the region. However, what began as a symbolic gesture of camaraderie has since transformed into a profound source of anxiety and instability for Pakistan. Today, Islamabad finds itself grappling with a rising threat from the Taliban and its Pakistani offshoot, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has evolved into one of the country’s gravest security challenges.
For decades, Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan involved supporting the Taliban as a means to exert influence and counterbalance rival powers. The Taliban regime, which once welcomed Pakistani military leaders and intelligence officials, now openly accuses Islamabad of violating Afghan sovereignty. This reversal has soured relations and fueled tensions along the porous border. The once cooperative relationship has devolved into mutual suspicion and hostility, with peace talks between the two sides reaching a critical impasse.
Peace negotiations, currently underway in Ankara, Turkey, have become increasingly toxic. Pakistan demands that the Afghan Taliban dismantle TTP sanctuaries along the border, but Kabul refuses. The Taliban leadership considers the TTP fighters as “brothers in faith” and kin, rooted in shared Pashtun tribal ties, and thus refuses to take action against them. Pakistan’s military, led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, regards this refusal as a betrayal. Yet, in Afghanistan, many view Munir himself as a stumbling block to stability. Afghan media outlets have openly criticized him, accusing him of politicizing Pakistan’s military and exacerbating tensions rather than seeking peace.
The relationship deteriorated rapidly after Munir’s appointment as Pakistan’s army chief in November 2022. Within days of his taking command, a fragile ceasefire with the TTP collapsed. In 2023, Pakistan’s decision to expel Afghan refugees sparked outrage in Kabul. Tensions escalated further in 2024 when Pakistani jets bombed Taliban-controlled border regions, provoking deadly retaliatory attacks that resulted in over 2,500 casualties on both sides. By mid-2025, the two countries were teetering on the brink of war, with the Taliban firing rockets into Pakistani checkpoints and Islamabad responding with airstrikes. Under mounting international and domestic pressure, Pakistan reluctantly returned to the negotiating table in October 2025. However, the Taliban re-entered talks from a position of strength and defiance, signaling a shift in the balance of power.
The threat Pakistan faces now extends well beyond its western border. The TTP has re-emerged within Pakistan’s heartland, including Punjab province, which is the country’s political and military core. Recent videos circulated online show Taliban commanders openly boasting of their presence inside Pakistan, threatening attacks “when we wish, where we wish.” These videos, filmed on Pakistani soil, have humiliated the country’s military and intelligence agencies, which had long been regarded as formidable but have proven unable to contain the insurgency.
The TTP’s resurgence is further complicated by the reintegration of 22 splinter factions into the main organization over the past year, increasing the group’s strength to approximately 75 factions since 2020. Among these is the Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction, notorious for conducting some of the deadliest ambushes against Pakistani forces. Moreover, alliances between the Taliban and Baloch rebel groups have expanded the geographic and ideological reach of the insurgency, opening new fronts of instability for Pakistan.
Pakistan’s internal security challenges now span from the Afghan border in the west to the Baloch insurgency near Iran in the southwest, and from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to the populous Punjab region. The country is effectively surrounded by multiple sources of unrest. This has taken a toll on the military’s morale and Pakistan’s broader governance and economic stability.
Economically, Pakistan is under severe strain. Its foreign debt has ballooned to 35 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a significant burden for a developing economy. Economic growth has slowed to a meager 2.5 percent, and foreign currency reserves hover precariously near $10 billion—barely enough to cover four months