Luka Doncic, the dynamic guard who arrived in Los Angeles via a surprising midseason trade from the Dallas Mavericks last season, has quickly become a pivotal player for the Lakers. With LeBron James sidelined due to injury, Doncic has stepped up admirably, helping the team secure a strong 7-3 start to the current NBA season. As the Lakers prepare to face the Charlotte Hornets on Monday at 7 p.m. ET in a cross-conference matchup, Doncic is expected to be in the lineup. After logging a relatively light 27 minutes in Saturday’s game followed by a rest day, his workload suggests he will be well-rested and ready to contribute once again.
While Luka Doncic is predominantly celebrated for his offensive prowess—regularly dazzling fans and opponents alike with his scoring, passing, and overall playmaking—his defensive game has recently become a significant asset for the Lakers. Over the past three games, Doncic has recorded an impressive nine steals, signaling a heightened defensive intensity. This surge in defensive activity has not gone unnoticed in the betting world. The latest NBA odds set his over/under for steals at 1.5 steals for Monday’s game, with the Over paying as much as +122. This prop bet has drawn considerable attention as one of the top NBA player prop bets for the night, according to projections from the SportsLine Projection Model.
For basketball bettors, targeting player prop bets—wagers on individual player statistics such as points, rebounds, assists, and steals—has become an increasingly popular strategy, especially for high-profile players like Doncic. Online sportsbooks now offer a vast array of prop bets for nearly every player in every game, providing numerous opportunities to find value. The Inside the Lines (ITL) team leverages an advanced SportsLine Projection Model that simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. This model helps identify advantageous bets and uncover value plays for NBA games, including Monday’s slate. For those new to betting, sportsbooks often offer promotional codes and bonuses, such as the Underdog Fantasy promo code CBSSPORTS2, which provides $100 in bonus entries with just a $5 entry fee.
The SportsLine Projection Model has an impressive track record. Over the past eight seasons, it has generated over $10,000 in betting profit for players wagering $100 on its top-rated NBA picks. Entering Week 3 of the 2025-26 NBA season, the model is riding a hot streak with a 26-13 record on top NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Bettors who have followed its advice through sportsbooks and betting apps have enjoyed substantial returns. This level of consistent success makes the model’s player prop recommendations, including those for Monday’s games, highly reliable and worth considering.
Among the top NBA player prop picks for Monday is Luka Doncic’s steals total. Despite averaging around 1.7 steals per game (1.8 on the road) since 2024, the model projects him to exceed the 1.5-steal line, estimating two steals in Monday’s game. This projection is bolstered by the Lakers’ improved defensive intensity—they are forcing more than three additional turnovers per game this season compared to last year. The Charlotte Hornets, their opponents, are even more turnover-prone, averaging 16 turnovers per game this season, which increases Doncic’s opportunities to rack up steals. Although Doncic only recorded one steal in his most recent game, he had eight combined in the two games before that, reflecting his aggressive defense.
Another player prop of interest is Onyeka Okongwu’s assist total. Okongwu, who has been a dominant force on the boards and in scoring over the past week, has struggled to surpass 2.5 assists per game this season, going just 2-8 over that mark. However, his recent scoring outputs—21, 30, and 22 points in his last three games—and his consistent 20+ point performances in five of seven recent games suggest a player in good form. The model anticipates Okongwu will regress to the mean and push his assists higher, especially with teammates like Alex Sarr providing strong interior defense. Sarr’s presence as a shot blocker, with an increase from 1.5 blocks as a rookie to 2.5 blocks this season, can open up passing lanes as opponents focus on protecting the paint. Okongwu’s assist line