Week 8 of the NFL season is shaping up to be particularly notable for its significant betting line movements, especially in matchups unaffected by key injuries. One of the most striking examples is the upcoming game between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts. When the betting lines initially opened during the summer, the Colts were only favored by 3.5 points. However, as the season has progressed, this spread has ballooned to the Colts being 14-point favorites at most sportsbooks—a massive swing rarely seen outside of injury-related circumstances.
At the start of the season, the expectation was that rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson would lead the Colts, but Daniel Jones ultimately won the starting job. Despite this change at quarterback, the dramatic increase in the Colts’ favored margin is almost entirely due to their impressive performance through the first seven weeks of the season. The team’s strong play has significantly shifted public perception and betting markets, highlighting how on-field success can drive line movement even without injury factors.
Such large line swings between the initial lookahead and the current betting line usually only happen when an elite quarterback is sidelined. For instance, the Baltimore Ravens went from being 9.5-point favorites against the Houston Texans to underdogs when injuries hit their roster. Similarly, a notable line move has occurred with the Kansas City Chiefs, who were initially favored by 5.5 points in their Week 9 matchup but now stand at -12.5. This change followed the announcement that Marcus Mariota will start in place of Jayden Daniels, who is out due to injury. This shift roughly matches the line the Chiefs had when they hosted the Las Vegas Raiders the previous week, a game they dominated 31-0 despite missing key players themselves.
The betting market is essentially equating the Jayden Daniels-less Washington Commanders with the Raiders team that lacked several key contributors, including Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Kolton Miller. Washington also lost its top pass rusher in a recent defeat to the Dallas Cowboys, further casting doubt on the Commanders’ defensive capabilities. This context helps explain why the line has moved so significantly in favor of the Chiefs.
Another major line movement has occurred in the Jets-Bengals game. Cincinnati opened as a modest 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead lines but has since surged to being 6.5-point favorites. This shift came after the Bengals upset the Pittsburgh Steelers while the Jets’ offense continued to struggle. Remarkably, in just two weeks, the Bengals went from 14-point underdogs in Green Bay—where Joe Flacco made his first start—to nearly touchdown favorites at home against what is arguably the league’s worst team, the Jets. This 20.5-point swing is enormous, especially when considering that the gap between the top and bottom teams in power ratings is about 13.5 points, and betting market ratings show a similar spread of 14 points.
This drastic movement in such a short time frame is one reason why some analysts locked in bets on the Jets when sportsbooks offered as much as +7 points — a value bet given the market’s volatility and the Jets’ potential to outperform expectations.
Looking ahead to Week 9, here are some of the consensus lookahead lines currently available: the Ravens are favored by 7.5 points at the Dolphins; the Panthers are underdogs at the Packers by 10.5 points; the Bears are slight favorites by 1.5 points at the Bengals; Broncos are favored by 1.5 points at the Texans; Colts are 2.5-point favorites at the Steelers; Chargers are favored by 7.5 points at the Titans; Falcons are underdogs by 2.5 points at the Patriots; the 49ers are favored by 3 points at the Giants; Vikings are underdogs by 7.5 points at the Lions; Saints are heavy favorites by 12 points at the Rams; Jaguars are favored by 3 points at the Raiders; Chiefs are slight favorites by 1.5 points at the Bills; Seahawks are favored by 2.5 points at the Commanders; and the Cowboys are favored by 3 points against the Cardinals.
Among these matchups, the Packers remain one of the best teams in the league per power ratings but have struggled to cover the spread since Week 2. Their inability to close out games or pull away has been a recurring theme, such as in their recent games against the Cardinals.