As tensions simmer in the South China Sea, the U.S. military has quietly prepared a potential show of force aimed at countering China's increasingly aggressive actions in the contested waters. This development coincides with the much-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled to take place in South Korea. According to sources familiar with the matter, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command—the Pentagon’s oldest and largest combatant command responsible for military operations across half the globe—has issued an execution order this week for a precision strike demonstration against Chinese positions near disputed maritime areas.
While the timing and execution of this operation remain uncertain, as military plans can be altered or canceled at short notice, the directive signals Washington’s intent to push back firmly against Beijing’s expanding presence in the region. The operation would serve as a clear message of U.S. resolve to defend the sovereignty and traditional fishing rights of the Philippines, a key regional ally, amid growing Chinese encroachment.
The weapon system slated for use in this potential demonstration is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. Known for its precision strikes against fixed targets such as ammunition depots or troop concentrations, HIMARS has proven its effectiveness in past conflicts, including extensive deployment in Iraq and Afghanistan. More recently, it has gained prominence as a critical asset for Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression. Built by defense contractor Lockheed Martin, HIMARS offers the U.S. military a highly mobile and precise capability that could be leveraged to underscore the seriousness of the U.S. stance in the South China Sea.
Central to the dispute is the Scarborough Shoal, known locally in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc. This reef lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but has been under de facto Chinese control since a tense 2012 standoff between Manila and Beijing. Over the years, China has steadily increased its presence there, with its coast guard and maritime vessels frequently shadowing or harassing Philippine ships and small fishing boats operating in the area.
The situation has deteriorated to the point where incidents of direct confrontation have been recorded. In September 2024, for instance, a “60 Minutes” crew aboard a Philippine Coast Guard ship witnessed firsthand the aggressive maneuvers of Chinese vessels. The Philippine ship, which was on a mission to resupply personnel and stations in the South China Sea, was surrounded and rammed by a Chinese coast guard vessel, forcing it to abandon its first resupply stop. Such encounters underscore the volatile nature of the dispute and the growing risk of escalation.
Adding to concerns, recent satellite imagery has revealed what appears to be a floating barrier installed by China at the mouth of Scarborough Shoal. These high-resolution photos, captured by the Argentine satellite company Satellogic and analyzed by retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Ray Powell—a maritime analyst affiliated with Stanford University’s SeaLight analysis group—show a physical obstruction that could further restrict access to the reef. While both China and the Philippines have previously erected and later dismantled temporary barriers around the shoal, the latest installation underscores Beijing’s intent to consolidate control.
U.S. officials have indicated that if the Indo-Pacific Command chooses to proceed with the HIMARS demonstration, it would ideally take place before upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations or before China establishes a more permanent barrier at Scarborough. The timing would aim to maximize diplomatic impact and signal Washington’s unwillingness to tolerate further unilateral moves by Beijing to alter the status quo.
The tensions near Scarborough Shoal are part of a broader pattern of Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, a crucial maritime corridor through which trillions of dollars in trade pass annually. In August, a collision occurred between a Chinese Coast Guard ship and a Chinese Navy vessel near the reef while pursuing a Philippine Coast Guard cutter, highlighting the dangerous proximity and aggressive maneuvers of the involved parties. Shortly thereafter, Beijing announced plans to designate the area as a “nature reserve,” a move widely condemned by the United States and Manila alike.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharply criticized China’s declaration, calling it a “coercive attempt to advance sweeping territorial and maritime claims” that undermine regional stability and infringe upon the rights of neighboring countries, including the Philippines. Rubio emphasized that China’s actions effectively prevent Filipino fishermen from accessing traditional fishing grounds, exacerbating tensions and threatening livelihoods.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. echoed these concerns in remarks made before leaders of the Association of Southeast