Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off with an intriguing matchup on Thursday Night Football featuring the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams enter the contest with identical two-win records, each striving to climb back into the competitive AFC playoff picture. This game draws added interest as it marks the return of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has been sidelined for the last three games due to injury. Baltimore enters the game as 7.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 51.5 points according to the latest NFL odds. This setup makes for an exciting betting landscape, especially for fans interested in constructing same-game parlays (SGPs) that combine various prop bets, point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Jackson’s return is a major storyline. Known for his dynamic playmaking ability, Jackson will look to lead Baltimore’s offense back to form after missing significant time. His presence significantly impacts betting strategies, especially when considering player props that involve his performance. For instance, Jackson’s passing touchdowns and yardage totals could be key components in a winning SGP for bettors aiming to capitalize on Thursday Night Football action.
When examining team performance against the spread (ATS), Miami has been relatively strong recently, posting a 4-2 record ATS over its last six games. Conversely, Baltimore’s performance with Jackson as the starter has been less reliable, standing at just 1-3 against the spread. These stats raise important questions for bettors: Should you back the Dolphins at home despite Baltimore being the favorites? The answer could depend on several factors beyond just the quarterback matchup.
Aside from Lamar Jackson, several other players could influence the outcome and betting markets. Miami’s offense features quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, running back De’Von Achane, and the bruising presence of Derrick Henry, who has been a dominant force in the NFL. Meanwhile, Baltimore boasts talented weapons like tight end Mark Andrews and rookie wide receiver Malik Washington, both of whom could provide value in the props market due to their potential to exceed expectations.
For bettors looking to make informed decisions, consulting expert NFL predictions and betting advice is crucial. SportsLine, a platform powered by a sophisticated computer model that simulates NFL games 10,000 times, offers valuable insights. This model has a proven track record, having amassed over $7,000 in profits for $100 bettors on top-rated picks since its inception. Its recent performance has been especially strong, entering Week 9 with a 45-28 record on top-rated NFL selections in 2024. Those who have followed the model’s picks at sportsbooks have enjoyed significant returns.
The model has already analyzed the Dolphins vs. Ravens matchup extensively and locked in three confident best bets to form a strong same-game parlay. A successful parlay combining these picks could yield a payout exceeding 4-to-1, providing excellent value for bettors. However, access to the full same-game parlay is exclusive to SportsLine subscribers.
One of the model’s standout picks involves Lamar Jackson going over 1.5 passing touchdowns at odds of around -198. This bet is compelling for several reasons. First, the game is a homecoming for Jackson, a native of South Florida, which often inspires some of his best performances. Historically, Jackson has excelled against the Dolphins; in 2023, he threw five touchdown passes in a single game against Miami, marking his second career five-TD game against this opponent. Additionally, Jackson boasts four NFL games with a perfect passer rating, with half of those performances coming against Miami.
Jackson’s recent form further supports this prop bet. In his three full games so far this season, he has exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns each time, including a three-touchdown performance in Week 3. The Dolphins’ defense has struggled against the pass this year, allowing the highest completion percentage and the second-highest passer rating in 2025. They have also intercepted the fewest passes in the league, making it easier for a talented quarterback like Jackson to exploit their secondary. The model projects Jackson to average approximately 2.42 passing touchdowns during this Thursday night contest.
Besides Jackson’s passing touchdowns prop, the model has identified two additional picks to include in the Dolphins vs. Ravens same-game parlay. One of these bets is particularly strong, hitting in nearly 70% of the model’s simulations. While the specifics of these other two picks are reserved for SportsLine subscribers, it’s clear that the