Hurricane Melissa, which recently made landfall in both Jamaica and Cuba, exemplifies a troubling pattern emerging among major storms in our warming world. As climate change continues to influence atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the most catastrophic hurricanes—those with the strongest winds and heaviest rains—are becoming more frequent and exhibiting behaviors that differ markedly from storms of past decades. Melissa’s development, intensity, and timing highlight these shifts, offering a stark reminder of the new normal for tropical cyclones.
Before making landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane—the highest hurricane classification—Melissa rapidly intensified while moving over unusually warm Caribbean waters. This rapid strengthening allowed it to become the most powerful storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and tied the record for the strongest landfall ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Experts say this rapid intensification and extreme power are closely linked to climate change, which has warmed ocean surfaces and increased atmospheric moisture, providing more fuel for storms to grow quickly and intensely.
Meteorologist Shel Winkley from Climate Central explained that Melissa’s explosive growth over just 18 hours—from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane, and then reaching Category 5 strength—typifies a trend seen in recent years. This rapid intensification, defined by the National Hurricane Center as an increase in sustained wind speeds of at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours, is becoming more common. Winkley noted that the Caribbean waters Melissa passed over were approximately 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than usual, a warming that climate scientists estimate has been made up to 700 times more likely by human-driven climate change. Although 2.5 degrees might sound small, even slight increases in ocean temperature can significantly boost a storm’s energy.
This pattern of rapid intensification is not unique to Melissa. Several recent hurricanes have displayed similar explosive growth. For instance, Hurricane Milton in 2023 increased its wind speeds by 90 mph in just over a day, and Hurricane Ian in 2022 underwent two rounds of rapid intensification before devastating Florida. Other notable storms like Idalia (2023), Ida (2021), and Harvey (2017) also rapidly intensified, underscoring that these events are becoming a recurring and dangerous feature of modern hurricane seasons.
Interestingly, while the number of hurricanes and tropical cyclones worldwide has decreased over the past 35 years, this trend doesn’t apply equally across all regions. According to Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University, the overall drop is mostly due to fewer cyclones forming in the Pacific Ocean. In contrast, Atlantic hurricane activity has increased, partly because of a decades-long La Niña pattern—a periodic climate phenomenon characterized by cooler Pacific waters and changes in atmospheric circulation. La Niña tends to weaken the high-altitude winds that normally suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic, effectively creating a more favorable environment for hurricanes.
Klotzbach emphasized that while the total number of storms in the Atlantic has risen, the most significant trend is the increase in the intensity of hurricanes. There has been a noticeable rise in the number of storms reaching Category 4 and 5 status. In 2024 alone, there have been three Category 5 hurricanes—a rare occurrence not seen in over 20 years. This shift toward more powerful hurricanes is consistent with expectations from climate models that predict warmer seas will fuel stronger storms.
At the same time, the future of hurricanes is complex and not entirely predictable. Zachary Handlos, an atmospheric scientist at Georgia Tech University, pointed out that while warmer sea surface temperatures should promote more intense hurricanes, changes in the atmosphere—particularly in high-altitude wind patterns—could either enhance or inhibit storm development depending on the region. This uncertainty makes it challenging to forecast exactly how hurricane patterns will evolve as the planet continues to warm.
Another noteworthy aspect of Melissa was its timing. The hurricane developed late in the Atlantic season, making landfall just days before Halloween. Traditionally, hurricane activity peaks in early September and tapers off by late October. However, data suggests the hurricane season is both starting earlier and extending later than in previous decades. The Caribbean, in particular, has become a hotspot for powerful late-season hurricanes. Klotzbach attributes this shift partly to the persistent La Niña pattern, which weakens high-altitude winds during the fall, combined with still-warm Caribbean waters that provide ample energy for storms to form in late October and early November.
Melissa’s behavior after intensifying was also notable