Dolphins vs. Ravens odds, line, picks, 'Thursday Night Football' prediction, best bets from proven model

Dolphins vs. Ravens odds, line, picks, 'Thursday Night Football' prediction, best bets from proven model

The NFL Week 9 slate kicks off with an intriguing AFC matchup as the Miami Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are coming off much-needed victories that helped halt losing streaks, setting the stage for a compelling contest at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, with fans eager to see if Miami can build on its recent success or if Baltimore can continue to assert dominance over the Dolphins.

Baltimore Ravens, currently sitting at 2-5, snapped a frustrating four-game losing streak with an impressive 30-16 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 8. The victory was a significant morale booster for a team that began the season with high expectations, even being considered preseason Super Bowl contenders. Against Chicago, the Ravens played nearly flawless football, avoiding turnovers, rushing for 177 yards and two touchdowns, and holding the Bears to a season-low 16 points. Defensively, Baltimore’s effort was particularly notable as it prevented Chicago from scoring a passing touchdown — the first time the Ravens have achieved such a feat in 2025. The Bears were limited to just 96 rushing yards, which ranks as the second-fewest allowed by Baltimore this season.

Despite missing their star quarterback Lamar Jackson for much of the year due to a hamstring injury, the Ravens have maintained a strong running game. They rank second in the league with an average of 5.3 yards per rush. Running back Derrick Henry continues to shine and recently moved into sole possession of fifth place on the all-time rushing touchdowns list, surpassing Bears legend Walter Payton during the Chicago game. Henry’s physical running style should give him plenty of opportunities against Miami’s defense, which has struggled against the run — allowing the fourth-most yards per carry in the NFL. Baltimore’s passing game, led by Jackson, is expected to be back in action as he is anticipated to play after missing the previous weeks, giving the Ravens a significant boost.

On the other side of the field, the Miami Dolphins (2-6) entered Week 8 on a three-game losing streak before shutting down the Atlanta Falcons in a dominant 34-10 performance. This was Miami’s best showing of the season on both offense and defense. The Dolphins scored a season-high 34 points while holding Atlanta to just 10, signaling a potential turnaround for a team that has faced its share of challenges this year. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has been dealing with a thumb injury but is expected to play, will look to continue his strong play and exploit Baltimore’s defensive weaknesses.

Miami’s offense still boasts some dangerous playmakers even without star wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Running back De’Von Achane has been consistent, recording at least 91 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in nine straight games. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has also been a reliable target, posting at least 95 receiving yards in three of his last four games. These offensive weapons will have opportunities against a Baltimore defense that has struggled in multiple areas. The Ravens rank in the bottom five in points allowed, yards allowed, passing defense, and third-down defense. Opponents have scored on a league-high 52.7% of their possessions against Baltimore, and only one team has allowed more rushing touchdowns. Miami’s offense could find plenty of room to operate, especially with Tagovailoa expected to have ample time in the pocket, given Baltimore’s low sack total — the second-fewest in the NFL this year.

Historically, Baltimore has had the upper hand in this rivalry. The Ravens have won nine of their last twelve meetings against the Dolphins, including a decisive 56-19 victory earlier in the 2023 season. This dominance is reflected in the betting odds as well, with Baltimore entering the game as 7.5-point favorites on the road. The money line heavily favors the Ravens at -457, while Miami sits at +350 as the underdog. The over/under for total points is set at 51.5, which ranks as the third-highest total for NFL Week 9, indicating expectations for a reasonably high-scoring game.

Looking at betting trends, the Ravens have struggled against the spread (ATS) when Lamar Jackson starts this season, posting a 1-3 ATS record. Conversely, Miami has been more reliable in this regard, going 4-2 ATS over its last six

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