In a startling announcement that could signal a significant shift in global nuclear policy, former President Donald Trump declared that the United States would resume testing nuclear weapons. Trump made this declaration on his social media platform, Truth Social, shortly before a scheduled meeting with the Chinese president. He stated, "Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately." This proclamation has raised serious questions and concerns among experts and international observers alike, given the potential implications for global security and the future of nuclear arms control.
Historically, nuclear-armed nations—those recognized as part of the so-called "nuclear club" as well as those with more ambiguous nuclear statuses—have regularly tested their nuclear weapons delivery systems. These systems include missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, among other technologies. However, actual detonations of nuclear weapons have been exceedingly rare in recent decades. Since the 1990s, only North Korea has conducted nuclear tests, with its last known test taking place in 2017. This long hiatus in nuclear detonations among major powers has been part of a broader global effort to limit nuclear proliferation and reduce the risk of nuclear conflict.
At the time of Trump’s announcement, the White House had not provided any further clarification on whether the planned tests would involve nuclear warheads themselves or merely the delivery systems. Trump later indicated that the specific sites for nuclear tests would be determined at a later date, leaving many details unclear. This ambiguity has fueled speculation and concern among policy experts, many of whom caution that resuming nuclear weapons testing could dramatically raise tensions at a time when the global security environment is already precarious.
A group of six nuclear policy experts consulted by the BBC expressed varying degrees of alarm over Trump’s statement. Most agreed that renewed nuclear testing by the United States could exacerbate an already dangerous situation, potentially accelerating a global nuclear arms race. Jamie Kwong, a fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned of a "domino effect" that such tests could trigger. Kwong emphasized that the U.S., Russia, and China are currently at a critical juncture where the risk of an arms race is becoming increasingly real. According to Kwong, decades of restraint in nuclear testing have helped maintain a fragile balance, and breaking that restraint could destabilize the international order.
Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow for proliferation and nuclear policy at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defense and security think tank, took a slightly more measured view. While she did not believe Trump’s remarks alone would drastically change the nuclear landscape, she noted that global dynamics had already elevated the risk of nuclear conflict and proliferation to levels unseen in decades. Dolzikova described Trump’s announcement as "a drop in a much larger bucket," highlighting that while the statement itself might be minor in isolation, it occurs within a broader context of growing nuclear dangers.
Several ongoing conflicts and geopolitical flashpoints underscore the heightened risks. The war in Ukraine, where Russian President Vladimir Putin has at times suggested the potential use of nuclear weapons, looms large. Meanwhile, regional tensions flare in South Asia, particularly between Pakistan and India, both nuclear-armed states that have had confrontations this year. In the Middle East, Israel—known to maintain a policy of nuclear ambiguity—has conducted attacks on Iran, a country accused by Western nations of pursuing nuclear weapons ambitions, though Tehran denies these charges. The Korean Peninsula remains a hotspot, with North Korea’s nuclear program and aggressive rhetoric continuing to destabilize the region. Additionally, China’s territorial ambitions in Taiwan add another layer of complexity to an already volatile nuclear environment.
Complicating matters further is the impending expiration of the last major nuclear arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia, known as New START, which limits deployed strategic nuclear arsenals. This agreement is set to expire in February next year, and no clear successor has been established, raising fears of an unconstrained arms buildup.
Trump’s claim that the U.S. possesses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world does not align with current data from independent think tanks specializing in arms control. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia currently holds approximately 5,459 nuclear warheads, slightly more than the U.S. stockpile of about 5,177. China trails far behind with an estimated 600 warheads. Similar