American farmers have cautiously welcomed China’s recent commitment to purchase a substantial amount of U.S. soybeans over the next three years, a move seen as a step toward repairing trade relations disrupted by the previous administration’s tariffs. However, many farmers and industry representatives emphasize that while the promise is a positive development, it does not address the full spectrum of challenges currently facing American agriculture, including rising costs for key inputs like fertilizer, machinery, repair parts, and seeds.
The announcement from China commits the country to buying at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually for the next three years. This volume reflects a return to the pre-trade war levels seen before President Donald Trump’s administration imposed tariffs on Chinese imports in the spring, which triggered a retaliatory response from China against U.S. agricultural products. However, the initial purchase plan—12 million metric tons set to be bought by January—is only about half the typical annual volume that China has historically imported from the United States.
Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt, who also serves as a director with the United Soybean Board, expressed cautious optimism. “This is a very good thing. I’m very grateful,” he said. Nonetheless, Ewoldt was quick to temper expectations, pointing out that the deal “doesn’t cure everything in the short term.” His remarks highlight the broader reality that while trade deals can alleviate some pressures, they do not immediately resolve the complex economic difficulties farmers face on the ground.
One such challenge is the soaring cost of farming essentials. Fertilizer prices, the cost of tractors and other farm machinery, repair parts, and seeds have all risen sharply in recent years. These increases impact farmers’ profitability and their ability to invest in the upcoming planting seasons. Ewoldt’s concern reflects a widespread sentiment among farmers that a single trade agreement, even one as significant as this, is not a silver bullet for the industry’s financial struggles.
In addition to the soybean purchase commitment, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced that China has agreed to remove all retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products. This development is expected to open the door for increased sales of other key U.S. exports, including crops such as corn and beef. China also promised to resume buying U.S. sorghum, a grain largely used for animal feed and another important export commodity for American farmers. Historically, more than half of the U.S. sorghum and soybean crops are exported each year, with China being one of the largest buyers.
The removal of tariffs and renewed purchasing commitments from China are expected to improve the financial outlook for many farmers by stabilizing demand for their products. This, in turn, could make it easier for farmers to secure loans and financing for the next growing season. Despite these positive steps, Ewoldt urged caution, hoping that the administration does not assume the trade agreement will “solve everything in the next 6 to 8 months or ten months.” He emphasized the need for continued support and vigilance as the agricultural sector navigates ongoing economic pressures.
The backdrop to this renewed trade engagement is the trade war initiated by President Trump, which led to a significant downturn in Chinese purchases of American soybeans. Prior to the tariffs, China was the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, consistently purchasing about one-quarter of the U.S. crop. In 2022, U.S. soybean exports to China were valued at approximately $12.5 billion out of nearly $24.5 billion in total U.S. soybean exports. However, after tariffs were imposed, China ceased buying American soybeans and shifted much of its procurement to Brazil and other South American countries.
Data from the World Bank illustrates this shift in trade patterns. In the year following the trade war’s onset, Brazilian soybeans accounted for more than 70% of China’s imports, while the U.S. share dropped to 21%. Argentina and other South American nations also increased their soybean exports to China, as the country sought to diversify its suppliers to ensure food security. This diversification has made it more challenging for the U.S. to quickly regain its previous market share.
Caleb Ragland, a farmer from Kentucky and president of the American Soybean Association trade group, highlighted the significance of the new agreement as a foundation for restoring a stable, long-term trading relationship with China. He noted, “This is a meaningful step forward to reestablishing a stable, long-term trading relationship that delivers results for farm families and future generations.” Ragland’s comments reflect