In recent years, the U.S. housing market has been marked by uncertainty and anticipation, as prospective homebuyers closely monitored mortgage interest rates, hoping for a more affordable opportunity to enter the market. After peaking at 7.76% in late 2023, mortgage rates have gradually declined, and as of mid-March 2026, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has fallen just below 6%. Many lenders are even offering loans in the 5% range, suggesting that buyers who have been waiting might finally be seeing the market shift toward affordability.
Despite this encouraging trend, the question remains: will mortgage rates continue to fall this spring, or will external factors cause them to rise again? Experts caution that while rates have eased from their highs, a dramatic drop is unlikely in the near term, and rates are expected to remain within a relatively narrow range. This cautious outlook is influenced by a blend of economic indicators, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions.
Christopher Hodge, head economist for the U.S. at Natixis CIB Americas and a former principal economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shares a measured perspective. He notes that although the Federal Reserve is signaling potential interest rate cuts ahead, any easing of monetary policy is likely to be counterbalanced by persistent inflation and worries that geopolitical events could sustain elevated inflation expectations. This dynamic suggests that mortgage rates will hover within a stable band rather than swinging dramatically either up or down.
Similarly, Craig Garcia, president of Capital Partners Mortgage, highlights the delicate balance between inflation and the labor market. He explains that for mortgage rates to move significantly higher, inflation would need to surge beyond current containment levels. Conversely, for rates to drop substantially, the labor market would have to show signs of considerable strain. With inflation seemingly under control and employment steady, the environment does not currently support a sharp shift in mortgage rates.
However, recent geopolitical developments have introduced new uncertainties that could affect mortgage rates. The outbreak of conflict involving Iran has led to a spike in oil prices, which in turn has influenced borrowing costs. Mortgage News Daily reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 5.99% on February 27 to 6.14% on March 5, reflecting market reactions to these events.
Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, acknowledges that prior to the conflict, the expectation was for rates to decrease this spring. However, with the onset of the war and the subsequent rise in oil prices, rates have trended upward. She emphasizes that the future trajectory of mortgage rates depends heavily on how long the conflict lasts and the extent to which higher oil prices affect inflation. For now, the outlook is for mortgage rates to remain elevated until geopolitical tensions ease and energy prices stabilize.
The bond market, closely tied to mortgage rates, has already responded to these geopolitical pressures. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note—a benchmark influencing mortgage rates—increased from 3.97% on February 27 to 4.13% on March 5. This uptick reflects investor concerns about prolonged conflict and sustained high oil prices, both of which tend to push borrowing costs higher.
Craig Garcia warns that if the conflict in the Middle East continues and leads to persistently higher oil prices, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall. This scenario would maintain upward pressure on inflation and borrowing costs, counteracting any Federal Reserve moves to ease interest rates.
For prospective homebuyers weighing the decision to purchase now or wait, the advice from experts is to manage expectations. Mortgage rates are expected to remain close to the current 6% level, with fluctuations possible depending on economic data and the progression of geopolitical events. Garcia outlines a potential range of 5.625% to 6.625%, suggesting relative stability but acknowledging the likelihood of some volatility in response to news and economic reports.
Cohn remains hopeful that rates will stay within a moderate band, specifically between 6% and 6.25%, but she is closely watching how the situation unfolds. Given the unpredictability, she advises buyers not to delay excessively in hopes of catching a lower rate, as timing the bottom in mortgage rates is notoriously difficult. Rates can change daily, influenced by a complex mix of economic indicators, policy decisions, and international developments.
Importantly, Cohn points out that homebuying decisions should not hinge solely on interest rates. If a buyer finds a home that fits their needs and budget, locking in