As the college football season nears its climax with just two weeks remaining before conference championship weekend, the stakes are higher than ever for teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP). This Saturday’s slate of games is especially crucial for those teams on the bubble, where every win or loss could make or break their postseason hopes. For fans and bettors alike, this weekend presents a prime opportunity to engage with the action, particularly through sportsbooks like DraftKings, which is currently offering a compelling promotion for new users: $200 in bonus bets plus three free months of NBA League Pass. This offer allows fans not only to enjoy the thrill of college football but also to stake their claim on some of the best betting opportunities available.
One of the standout selections for Saturday comes from a sophisticated computer model that simulates every Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) game 10,000 times. This model has demonstrated consistent profitability on its top-rated money-line and over/under picks since the start of the 2024 season, making it a trusted resource for bettors looking to maximize their returns. Among its top Saturday picks is an intriguing upset: Cincinnati, currently an underdog at +124, is favored by the model to defeat No. 11 BYU in a matchup that could significantly alter the CFP landscape. A Cincinnati win would likely vault the Bearcats back into playoff contention, especially with the Big 12 Championship on the horizon. The model projects Cincinnati to win in 55% of simulations, highlighting the potential value in backing this team.
Cincinnati’s season has seen its ups and downs. After reaching as high as No. 17 in the Associated Press polls, back-to-back losses have dropped them to a 7-3 record, putting their CFP hopes in jeopardy. However, the Bearcats still have a shot at clinching an automatic playoff berth by winning the Big 12 title. Playing at home on Saturday night, Cincinnati boasts a strong 5-1 home record and an average of 37.8 points per game in those contests. Meanwhile, BYU, sitting at 9-1 and ranked No. 11, has only secured two wins against Big 12 teams with winning records, which may temper expectations. This dynamic sets the stage for a competitive encounter that could swing the playoff picture significantly. Bettors looking to capitalize on this opportunity can do so at DraftKings Sportsbook, where the current promotion sweetens the deal.
Another compelling pick centers on the matchup between No. 20 Tennessee and Florida, with the model recommending a bet on the Under 57.5 total points scored. The Gators have struggled offensively this season, posting a dismal 3-7 record largely due to their inability to score. Florida ranks 126th in college football in scoring, averaging just 17 points per game, and has failed to score more than 24 points in its last five games. Their offensive woes were on full display in a recent 7-point effort against Kentucky. In contrast, Tennessee features the No. 3 scoring offense in the nation, averaging 40.2 points per game, although this figure is somewhat inflated by high-scoring performances against weaker non-conference opponents. The Volunteers’ offensive output has been less dominant in Southeastern Conference (SEC) play. Historically, games between Tennessee and Florida have tended to stay under the total, with five of their last six meetings producing fewer than 57.5 points. The model projects the Under to hit in 62% of simulations, reinforcing the prudence of this wager.
For bettors interested in maximizing their potential payouts, combining the model’s three top picks—Cincinnati to upset BYU, the Under play on Tennessee vs. Florida, and a selection in the Fresno State vs. Utah State game—into a parlay bet at DraftKings would yield an impressive payout of +614. This means risking $100 could win $614, a substantial return for a well-informed bet. Each of these picks is supported by data and expert analysis, making the parlay an attractive option for those looking to capitalize on the weekend’s key matchups.
Speaking of Fresno State, the model and SportsLine expert Matt Severance both highlight the Bulldogs’ favorable situation as they host Utah State in what is likely their season finale at home. Fresno State is fighting to keep its Mountain West title hopes alive, while Utah State is already out of contention and struggling mightily on the road