The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new report that signals a significant shift in its projections for global oil and gas demand. Contrary to its previous forecasts, which anticipated that demand for fossil fuels would peak around 2030, the IEA now predicts that consumption of oil and gas will continue to rise well beyond that year, potentially extending to 2050 or later. This change in outlook reflects a complex interplay of factors, including weak global climate action, concerns about energy security, and economic considerations such as low gas prices.
The report arrives at a critical moment as world leaders convene in Brazil for the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP30. The conference agenda is heavily focused on addressing the accelerating impacts of climate change, which have been underscored by recent extreme weather events and the troubling milestone of 2024 being the hottest year on record. Notably, 2024 marked the first time the planet’s average temperature rose more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels—a threshold that scientists and policymakers have long identified as critical to avoiding the most catastrophic effects of global warming.
Despite these alarming trends, the IEA’s analysis suggests that current global policies and market dynamics are insufficient to reverse the upward trajectory of fossil fuel demand. The agency highlights several key factors driving this trend. First, the relative affordability of natural gas and oil compared to alternatives continues to encourage their use, especially in countries prioritizing energy affordability and economic growth. Second, heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over energy security have led many nations to double down on domestic fossil fuel production and infrastructure, aiming to reduce reliance on potentially unstable foreign energy supplies. Third, the global community has yet to implement the ambitious climate policies needed to accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources at the scale and pace required to peak fossil fuel demand sooner.
The IEA’s projections have significant implications for the future of the planet’s climate. The report warns that without rapid and widespread adoption of clean energy technologies and aggressive policy interventions, the world is on track to experience a temperature increase of between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This scenario far exceeds the goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably to 1.5 degrees, relative to preindustrial levels.
Reaching the 1.5-degree target now appears increasingly unlikely without the deployment of advanced carbon dioxide removal technologies such as carbon sequestration. These methods involve capturing CO2 emissions from industrial sources or directly from the air and storing them underground or using them in other ways to prevent their release into the atmosphere. However, the IEA stresses that this technological approach must be paired with significant increases in renewable energy capacity, improvements in energy efficiency, and the widespread adoption of clean fuels to have any chance of limiting further warming.
The agency’s cautious stance has not gone unchallenged. Climate advocates and energy experts argue that the IEA’s forecasts may underestimate the speed and scale of change occurring in the energy sector. According to Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, a London-based energy research organization, the rapid advancement and deployment of renewable energy technologies and electrification efforts are outpacing current policy frameworks. He suggests that traditional modeling approaches, which rely heavily on existing policies and legislation, fail to capture the full potential of technological innovation and market-driven shifts toward cleaner energy sources.
This debate highlights the tension between policy-driven projections and the dynamic realities of technological development. While the IEA’s report provides a sober assessment rooted in current trends and policy commitments, it also underscores the critical importance of accelerating efforts to transform the global energy system. The agency’s findings serve as a stark reminder that without bold and coordinated action, the world may remain locked into a prolonged era of fossil fuel dependence, with severe consequences for climate stability.
The broader context of this report also reflects ongoing political and social challenges surrounding climate action. For instance, the United States’ recent policy reversals under President Donald Trump have contributed to a slowdown in emission reduction efforts, complicating international cooperation and ambition. Additionally, the global community faces the challenge of balancing economic development, energy access, and environmental sustainability—a complex task that requires reconciling competing priorities across diverse nations and populations.
In this environment, the IEA report functions as both a warning and a call to action. It highlights the urgent need for governments, industries, and civil society to redouble their commitments to renewable energy