One year after President Donald Trump’s re-election, the promise that propelled him back into office—the pledge to tackle inflation and bring down the cost of living—remains under scrutiny. Central to Trump’s 2024 campaign was his commitment to reduce prices for everyday Americans, especially groceries, energy, and cars, “starting on day one” of his administration. Now, with a year having passed since he assumed office, it is worth examining how those promises have held up against the realities of the economy and market forces.
### Inflation and Grocery Prices: A Mixed Picture
Inflation was the dominant concern for voters during the 2024 election campaign, with many Americans feeling the pinch of rising living costs. Trump consistently blamed the previous administration under President Joe Biden for these price hikes and vowed to reverse the trend immediately. At a news conference in August 2024, Trump declared, “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One,” standing in front of shelves stocked with packaged foods, milk, meats, and eggs to emphasize his point.
However, official data on grocery prices paints a more complicated picture. Over the 12 months leading to September 2025, grocery prices rose by 2.7%, a figure that includes the last four months of the Biden administration. Since Trump took office in January 2025, grocery prices have generally increased each month, with only one month—April—showing a decline. Some items experienced particularly sharp increases, such as certain meats and dairy products.
Experts point out that the president’s ability to directly influence food prices is limited, especially in the short term. Professor David Ortega, a food economics specialist, explains that many factors beyond presidential control impact prices. For example, tariffs imposed by Trump’s administration have increased costs on some imports, such as coffee, where a 50% tariff on Brazilian beans affects about one-third of US consumption. Additionally, Trump’s restrictive immigration policies, particularly crackdowns on undocumented workers, may have tightened labor markets in agriculture, pushing wages and costs higher.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, agrees that tariffs and immigration policy changes have contributed to inflationary pressures but notes that other factors, including adverse weather events, have also played a role. Climate problems in coffee-growing regions like Brazil and Colombia, compounded by tariffs, have driven coffee prices up globally, peaking in early 2025 before starting to fall again. A White House official highlighted that these weather patterns are outside the president’s control and emphasized that the administration has taken steps to ease rising beef prices by temporarily increasing imports.
Interestingly, not all grocery items have become more expensive. After initially rising to record highs—such as eggs, which spiked due to bird flu outbreaks—prices for some products have since fallen. Eggs, for example, went from $4.93 per dozen in January 2025 to $6.23 in March but have since dropped to $3.49. Other items like butter, margarine, ice cream, and frozen vegetables have also seen price decreases over the past year.
### Energy Costs Contradict Campaign Promises
One of Trump’s most ambitious pledges was to slash energy and electricity prices by half within 12 to 18 months of taking office. Speaking at a rally in August 2024, he promised sharp reductions in electricity bills, a major expense for many households. However, the data tells a different story. According to the US Energy Information Administration, average residential electricity rates rose from 15.94 cents per kilowatt-hour in January 2025 to 17.62 cents in August, the latest available figure.
Experts say the promise to halve electricity prices was technically impossible given the complexities of the energy market. Professor James Sweeney of Stanford University explains that electricity costs not only reflect generation but also the expenses related to delivery infrastructure like wires and transformers. He attributes the price rise to both demand and supply constraints, particularly a surge in demand driven by data centers powering artificial intelligence technologies, which consume vast amounts of electricity.
Prof. Sweeney also notes that policy decisions such as cuts to renewable energy subsidies and tariffs on imported steel—which increase the cost of building new power plants—have contributed to rising costs. Diane Swonk points out that this increase disproportionately affects lower-income households, especially as wealthier consumers often have better access to alternatives like solar power. The White House, however, maintains that Trump’s focus on expanding coal, natural gas, and nuclear