With Thanksgiving approaching in less than three weeks, many Americans are curious—and concerned—about how much this year’s traditional turkey dinner will cost. This year’s grocery prices are already reported to be 2.7% higher than last year, prompting questions about whether families will have to tighten their budgets or make do with less. Adding to the conversation, former President Donald Trump recently claimed that the cost of a Thanksgiving meal has actually decreased by 25% this year, a statement that has sparked debate and scrutiny. Let’s examine the facts behind these claims and explore what shoppers might expect at the grocery store this holiday season.
### The Trump Claim: A 25% Drop in Thanksgiving Meal Costs?
During a news conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, President Trump asserted that the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal has dropped significantly this year. He based his claim on a prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket offered by Walmart, stating that this year’s basket costs 25% less than the one offered in 2024. This statement was widely circulated and caught the attention of both shoppers and the media.
However, while Walmart’s 2025 Thanksgiving basket does indeed cost about 25% less than last year’s basket, the comparison is far from straightforward. Experts and analysts point out that the two meal baskets are not directly comparable because they contain different items and quantities, which significantly impacts the overall price.
### What’s Different About Walmart’s Thanksgiving Baskets?
David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M University, explains that comparing the two Walmart baskets is “not apples to apples.” The 2025 basket is smaller and includes fewer items, which naturally lowers the price but does not necessarily mean that the cost of the traditional meal has fallen.
For instance, Walmart’s 2025 basket costs less than $40 and is designed to feed 10 people, roughly $4 per person. Last year’s basket, by contrast, cost about $56 and fed eight people, which is just under $7 per person. This appears to be a 25% decrease or more, but the contents of the baskets reveal why.
The 2025 basket features only 15 items, whereas the 2024 basket had 29 items. Several staples are missing from this year’s offering, including dessert items like pecan pie, mini marshmallows, and muffin mix, as well as savory ingredients such as sweet potatoes, yellow onions, and celery stalks. Substitutions were also made: instead of 12 sweet Hawaiian rolls, the basket includes 12 dinner rolls; and instead of French’s crispy fried onions, the basket contains Kinder’s brand.
Moreover, the quantities of some items have changed. For example, the turkey weight offered this year is 13.5 pounds, compared with a range of 10 to 16 pounds last year. The basket also includes just one can of cream of mushroom soup instead of two. These differences mean the basket is more affordable, but it does not represent the same meal as last year’s.
### What Are Other Retailers Saying?
The White House also cited other retailers offering deals on Thanksgiving meals, including Lidl, Aldi, Target, and Schnucks. However, these retailers’ offerings also show variations that make direct price comparisons tricky.
Target’s four-person meal costs less than $20, roughly the same as last year, but the items have changed. For example, this year’s basket substitutes green beans and cream of mushroom soup for French bread and frozen corn, which again means it’s not an exact match.
Schnucks announced it has its lowest frozen store-brand turkey prices in over 15 years, although it declined to provide further details. Lidl and Aldi also claimed their prices are lower than last year’s, but without detailed item lists, it’s difficult to verify those claims fully.
### What Do Economic Reports Say?
According to a recent Wells Fargo report, the overall cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has actually fallen by 2% to 3% since 2024, depending on whether consumers opt for national name brands or cheaper store-brand items. This slight decrease is far less dramatic than the 25% drop Trump cited but does suggest some relief for consumers.
However, not all signs point to lower prices. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture reported in late October that wholesale turkey prices have surged by 75% since October 2024, and retail prices are up by about 25% compared to last year. The