With the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection set to be finalized in about a month, teams have limited time left to strengthen their resumes and secure a spot in the postseason. ESPN’s projection models, which analyze team performance, records, and other factors, offer insights into which teams are most likely to make the playoff. After Week 11’s games, including a commanding 41-21 victory by the Georgia Bulldogs over Mississippi State, there have been some shifts in the playoff projection landscape. Here’s a detailed update on how the playoff picture looks heading into the final stretch of the season.
### Conference Champions: The First Step to the Playoff
The CFP guarantees spots to conference champions from the four Power Five conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12) and the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion. Therefore, the likelihood of a team winning their conference is a critical factor in playoff projections.
Currently, Alabama leads the SEC race with a 52.9% chance of winning the conference, followed by Georgia Tech at 35.2%, and the Georgia Bulldogs hold a 17.9% chance, placing them third in the SEC. Despite Georgia’s recent dominant win over Mississippi State, their odds remain lower than Alabama’s, showcasing the continued strength of the Crimson Tide in the conference.
In the Big Ten, Ohio State remains the favorite, with a 48.7% probability of capturing the conference title. Interestingly, Indiana, despite not being the projected conference champion, holds a strong overall season record and remains in the playoff conversation through at-large bids, which will be discussed in more detail later.
The ACC conference champion projection remains with Georgia Tech, even after their upset loss to NC State, with a projected 35.2% chance. This is notable because it shows they are still considered the most likely to win the ACC despite the recent setback.
The Big 12 race has seen a significant shift. The Texas Tech Red Raiders, after a resounding 29-7 victory over BYU, now lead the conference with a 69.5% chance of winning the Big 12. This strong position has brought Texas Tech back into the CFP projections, emphasizing the importance of dominant wins late in the season.
The projected losers of each conference championship game are Indiana from the Big Ten (46.2%), Texas A&M from the SEC (21.8%), Duke from the ACC (19.9%), and BYU from the Big 12 (18.6%). These teams, though projected to lose the conference championships, remain in the playoff mix due to their strong records and playoff percentages.
### At-Large Bids: The Battle Beyond Conference Titles
After accounting for conference champions, the remaining playoff spots are filled through at-large bids. These bids are awarded based on the overall playoff percentages derived from team performance, strength of schedule, and projected outcomes.
Currently, the teams most likely to secure at-large bids include Indiana (99.8%), Texas A&M (98.9%), Georgia (92.4%), Oregon (86.4%), and Ole Miss (81.2%). These teams have maintained strong performances throughout the season, keeping them firmly in contention.
Notre Dame has also re-entered the at-large conversation with a playoff percentage of 48.9%, while BYU barely holds on at 45.4%, even after losing the Big 12 championship game. Their continued presence highlights the importance of consistent wins and conference performance.
On the cusp of the playoff is the Texas Longhorns team, with a playoff probability of 45.2%, missing the cut by a mere 0.2%. However, this could change if Texas wins its upcoming game against Georgia, showing how critical remaining games are for borderline teams.
### Group of Five Teams: The Underdogs’ Path
The Group of Five conferences have a unique path to the CFP, as only the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion is guaranteed a spot. This makes winning the conference essential for these teams’ playoff hopes.
Among Group of Five teams, South Florida (7-2) and James Madison (8-1) stand out. South Florida currently holds a 42.0% chance of winning their conference and a 39.7% chance of making the playoff, narrowly edging out James Madison, who has a 65.6% chance of winning their conference but only a 35.8% playoff probability.
This close race between South