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The ongoing Gaza war, which began with Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has profoundly reshaped the Middle East, redrawing borders, toppling regimes, and altering long-standing alliances across the region. The conflict’s devastating impact extends far beyond the Gaza Strip itself, influencing neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Yemen, and shifting global engagement with the Middle East in significant ways.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the deadliest attack in Israel’s history, killing nearly 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. This assault shattered the longstanding perception of Israel’s invulnerability and security, as noted by Dr. Sanam Wakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Israel, which maintains strict control over Gaza’s borders, coastline, and airspace, responded with a full-scale military offensive. Over the ensuing two years, the Health Ministry in Gaza reported more than 68,000 Palestinian deaths, figures acknowledged by the United Nations. Dr. Julie Norman, associate professor of politics and international relations at University College London, described the destruction in Gaza as “beyond imagination,” warning that its consequences will resonate for generations to come.
The initial attack set off a chain reaction across the region. Israel’s airstrikes in Gaza were met with retaliatory attacks from armed groups affiliated with Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. These groups, alongside Syria and Hamas, form part of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” backed by Iran. American diplomat Elliott Abrams explained that Israel, which had long managed threats on multiple fronts, found resistance alone insufficient after October 7 and shifted its military strategy accordingly. Israel first targeted Hamas in Gaza, then Hezbollah in Lebanon, and finally Iran itself.
In September 2024, Israel launched significant military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. This campaign included destroying thousands of communication devices such as pagers and walkie-talkies, followed by bombings and a ground offensive in southern Lebanon. The offensive resulted in the death of key Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, and the destruction of critical infrastructure and weapons caches. This weakening of Hezbollah, a major Iranian proxy, had ripple effects on regional dynamics.
Two months later, in late 2024, Syrian rebels rose up against President Bashar al-Assad, whose 24-year rule collapsed within just two weeks. Dr. Norman highlighted that the diminished support from Iran and Hezbollah, both crucial backers of Assad’s government, left it vulnerable. Israel capitalized on this power vacuum by striking Syrian military bases to prevent future threats. The new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Shara, previously linked with Al-Qaeda, pledged to prevent Syrian territory from being used for external attacks, marking a significant shift in Syria’s stance.
The long-standing tensions between Israel and Iran, which had largely played out indirectly through proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, escalated into open conflict in 2024. Prior to this, the two countries had engaged in secret and carefully managed clashes, but aerial strikes in April and October 2024 transformed the standoff into direct confrontation. In June 2025, Israel launched a major strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, triggering a 12-day war. The United States supported Israel with bunker-buster bombs during this conflict. Qatar played a key role in mediating a ceasefire between the two nations.
The consequences of these escalations were far-reaching. Iran’s proxy network, including Hamas and Hezbollah, was significantly weakened by the conflict. Analysts agree that these groups, along with Iran itself, are much weaker than before the war. Meanwhile, Russia lost a crucial regional ally with Assad’s fall. Despite past opposition between President Vladimir Putin and Ahmed al-Shara during Syria’s civil war, Moscow had used military force to support Assad’s regime. The regime change in Syria thus represented a setback for Russian influence in the Middle East.
China’s role in the region also diminished. Before the conflict, China had played a mediating role in peace and trade, notably facilitating ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, the Gaza war redirected U.S. attention back to the Middle East, leading Beijing to step back considerably. In contrast, Turkey emerged as a key ally to Syria’s new government. Dr. Norman observed that Syria, which had long been under the influence of Iran and Russia, is now seeing Turkey take a more prominent role in shaping regional outcomes.