In a significant geopolitical development, Afghanistan under Taliban rule has announced plans to construct a dam on the Kunar River, a move that has raised serious concerns in Pakistan. This decision is widely interpreted as retaliation against recent Pakistani military actions and reflects a broader strategy of using water resources as leverage in regional conflicts. The consequences for Pakistan, a country already grappling with water scarcity and energy challenges, could be dire, with experts warning of a looming water crisis and agricultural devastation. Moreover, the strategy appears to mirror India’s recent suspension of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, signaling a new era of water-based conflicts in South Asia.
**Why Did the Taliban Decide to Build the Dam?**
The announcement comes in the wake of escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly after Pakistan’s airstrikes on Kabul and violent clashes along the Durand Line, the disputed border between the two countries. Taliban Supreme Leader Maulvi Hibatullah Akhundzada issued direct orders to Afghanistan’s Water Ministry to expedite the construction of the dam on the Kunar River, insisting on the exclusive use of Afghan contractors and forbidding reliance on foreign companies. The message from the Taliban leadership is clear: the dam is a strategic tool intended to curtail Pakistan’s access to crucial water resources as a form of retaliation.
Taliban Water Minister Mullah Abdul Latif Mansoor publicly stated on social media that Afghans have the sovereign right to manage their water resources, implicitly asserting Afghanistan’s control over water that traditionally flowed into Pakistan. This move is regarded as a calculated “water strike,” designed to punish Pakistan by limiting its water supply, following the precedent set by India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty — a decades-old agreement that regulated water sharing between India and Pakistan.
**The Strategic Importance of the Kunar River**
Understanding the significance of the Kunar River is key to grasping the potential impact of the dam. The river originates from the Chiantar Glacier in Pakistan’s Chitral region, then flows westward into Afghanistan’s Kunar and Nangarhar provinces before looping back into Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Eventually, its waters merge with the Kabul River, which is a major tributary of the Indus River — Pakistan’s primary water source, essential for irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower.
The Kunar River spans approximately 480 kilometers and is a vital lifeline for various regions in Pakistan, especially the agriculturally rich Punjab and Sindh provinces. The Indus River system supports the irrigation of millions of acres of farmland and sustains Pakistan’s food production and energy needs.
Afghanistan’s proposed dam aims to generate about 1,000 megawatts of hydropower, addressing a critical energy deficit within the country. However, the dam’s construction is projected to reduce the flow of Kunar River water into Pakistan by 25 to 30 percent — a substantial decrease with far-reaching consequences.
**Implications for Pakistan: A Looming Water and Energy Crisis**
The potential impact on Pakistan could be catastrophic. Key areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including cities like Peshawar, Charsadda, and Nowshera, are expected to face the brunt of water shortages. The reduction in the Kunar’s flow would also lower water levels in the Indus River, affecting Punjab, often referred to as Pakistan’s “food basket.” An estimated 120,000 acres of farmland could lose essential irrigation, threatening agricultural productivity and food security.
The water withheld by the dam could have otherwise met the drinking needs of approximately 120 to 130 million people, underscoring the scale of the impending water crisis. Additionally, Pakistan’s hydropower generation is expected to decline by around 600 megawatts, equivalent to the energy consumption of roughly 1.4 million homes. This loss of electricity could plunge millions of Pakistani households into darkness, exacerbating the country’s ongoing energy shortages.
**Pakistan’s Geographic and Diplomatic Vulnerability**
One of Pakistan’s critical vulnerabilities lies in the peculiar geography of the Kunar River. Though the river originates within Pakistan’s territory, it flows westward into Afghanistan before returning to Pakistan. This unique path means Pakistan cannot physically prevent the water from leaving its borders once it flows into Afghanistan; however, Afghanistan can easily control and restrict the flow of water back into Pakistan.
Compounding this issue is the absence of any formal water-sharing treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Unlike the Indus Water Treaty