**NFL Week 7 Preview: Key Matchups, Betting Odds, and Model Predictions**
The NFL’s Week 7 Sunday schedule promises excitement, featuring four key matchups in the late afternoon slate. Among the most intriguing games is the Indianapolis Colts traveling to face the Los Angeles Chargers, with both teams coming off narrow victories and looking to cement their positions as playoff contenders. This week’s games are also a focal point for sports bettors, as advanced computer models offer their latest predictions and recommendations. Here’s a detailed look at the top games, key statistics, and betting insights for Sunday’s action.
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### **Colts vs. Chargers: Can Indianapolis Continue Its Surprising Surge?**
The Indianapolis Colts have emerged as one of the NFL’s most surprising teams in the early part of the season. With a 5-1 record after a hard-fought 31-27 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week, the Colts are defying preseason expectations. Their offense, led by quarterback Daniel Jones and standout running back Jonathan Taylor, has been explosive and consistent, averaging a league-best 32.3 points per game. Remarkably, the Colts have scored at least 29 points in five of their six games, and no opponent has kept them below 20 points so far this season.
On the other side, the Los Angeles Chargers come into this game with a 4-2 record, having edged past the Miami Dolphins 29-27 in their latest outing. Despite their winning record, the Chargers have developed a worrying trend for bettors: they have failed to cover the point spread in their last four games as the favorite. This suggests that while the Chargers are finding ways to win, they are not always meeting the high expectations set by oddsmakers.
For Sunday’s matchup, the Chargers are slight favorites, with the latest odds listing them at -1.5 points. The over/under for total points scored is set at 48.5, reflecting the offensive firepower both teams can bring to the field. However, the advanced SportsLine computer model—which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times—leans toward the Colts. According to the model, Indianapolis covers the spread in 54% of simulations and wins outright in 51% of outcomes. This suggests that the Colts are well-positioned to continue their winning streak, while the Chargers may once again fall short of covering the spread.
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### **Broncos vs. Giants: Denver’s Defense Making the Difference**
Another notable game in the late afternoon window features the Denver Broncos hosting the New York Giants. Denver’s defense has been one of the league’s best, holding opponents to just 15.8 points per game (second in the NFL) while allowing only 254.2 yards per contest. Their dominance was on full display last week in London, where they limited the New York Jets to a mere 82 total yards and notched an impressive nine sacks. Crucially, Denver’s defensive prowess isn’t just the result of facing weak opposition; two weeks ago, they held the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles to just 17 points.
The Broncos have won three straight games and are now 4-2 on the season. They enter this matchup as 7-point favorites against a Giants team that, despite a morale-boosting 34-17 win over the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, has struggled on the road. New York’s quarterback, Jaxson Dart, is 0-1 away from home, with a 26-14 loss to the previously winless New Orleans Saints on his record.
According to the SportsLine model, Denver is projected to cover the 7-point spread in 56% of simulations. The model’s confidence in the Broncos is rooted in their defensive consistency and the Giants’ difficulties in road environments.
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### **Cowboys vs. Commanders: Expect an Offensive Shootout**
The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders face off in what is anticipated to be the highest-scoring affair of the week, with an over/under set at 54.5 points—the largest total on the Week 7 slate. The model strongly favors the over, projecting a combined total of 60 points and giving the over a 65% chance of hitting.
Dallas boasts the league’s third-best scoring offense (29.7 points per game) but is hampered by a porous defense that ranks 31st, surrendering 30.7 points per game. This