The past week has been a whirlwind of diplomatic activity for US President Donald Trump, reminiscent of the quote attributed to Vladimir Lenin: "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." This flurry of international engagements suggests a significant shift in US foreign policy under Trump.
Despite his protectionist stance and "America First" policy, President Trump has been actively involved on the global stage, engaging in various diplomatic and economic activities. He and his administration have been involved in sealing business deals in the Gulf, lifting sanctions on Syria, negotiating the release of a US citizen detained by Hamas, halting military strikes against Houthi fighters in Yemen, reducing tariffs on China, urging Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, and even claiming to have facilitated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. This fast-paced diplomatic activity has left both allies and adversaries struggling to keep up.
One of the highlights of the week was Trump's visit to the Gulf, where he articulated his vision for international relations rooted in trade rather than conflict. In a speech delivered in Riyadh, he emphasized "commerce not chaos" in the Middle East, advocating for a region that exports technology rather than terrorism. This approach reflects a pragmatic mercantilism, where mutual business benefits are seen as a path to peace. Trump capitalized on the flattery of his Saudi hosts by signing deals purportedly worth $600 billion in US investments, which he touted as beneficial for American jobs.
However, Trump's approach has been critiqued by some diplomats who questioned the actual value of the agreements, suggesting that the spectacle was prioritized over substance. Notably, Trump's speech omitted any reference to collective international action on issues such as climate change or human rights, focusing instead on dismissing past Western interventionism. He criticized "nation-builders and neo-cons" for their interference in other nations' affairs, asserting that his role is to defend America, while judgment should be left to a higher power.
This reluctance to intervene was evident in the recent tensions between India and Pakistan. Historically, the US has played a mediator role in such conflicts, but the Trump administration initially hesitated to get involved, with Vice-President JD Vance stating that the issue was "fundamentally none of our business." Eventually, US diplomatic pressure, along with efforts from other nations, contributed to a ceasefire, although Indian diplomats downplayed US involvement.
Trump's central role in shaping US foreign policy was underscored by his decision to meet Syria's new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and lift sanctions on Syria. This move, seen as a result of lobbying by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, surprised many in the region and within the US government. The State Department reportedly preferred to maintain sanctions as leverage over Syria. Critics argue that Trump's impulsive decision-making, often without thorough internal discussion, can lead to inconsistent policies.
The inconsistency in Trump's foreign policy was also evident in his dealings with China. After imposing steep tariffs on Chinese goods, the US quickly reversed course, reducing the tariffs following market turmoil and warnings from American businesses. This pattern of making maximalist demands, threatening retaliation, negotiating, and then declaring victory is emblematic of Trump's "art of the deal" strategy, but its effectiveness in long-term diplomatic issues remains questionable.
The situation in Ukraine further illustrates Trump's unpredictable policy shifts. Initially aligned with European leaders in demanding a ceasefire from Russia, Trump abruptly supported direct talks between Ukraine and Russia, contradicting his earlier stance. Such vacillation raises questions about Trump's objectives regarding the war in Ukraine.
Amid these complex diplomatic maneuvers, Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Houthi fighters in Yemen and continued talks with Iran over its nuclear program. Both actions were taken without the support of Israel, causing concern about the potential repercussions from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly in relation to Gaza's ongoing conflict.
Despite the apparent diplomatic progress, many issues remain unresolved. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza persists, with the prospect of an Israeli offensive looming. The normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which Trump hoped to achieve, remains elusive. In Ukraine, there is little indication of an end to hostilities, and global market instability continues despite tariff negotiations with China and other nations.
Ultimately, Trump's foreign policy appears to be less isolationist and more mercantilist, emphasizing trade as a means to resolve conflicts. However, his eagerness to address multiple international issues simultaneously may complicate his ability to focus on his primary concern: China.
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