In recent years, as the global community increasingly pushes to reduce fossil fuel use to combat climate change, the oil and gas industry has been charting a new course to maintain profitability: a massive pivot toward plastics and petrochemicals. This strategic shift is exemplified by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, which announced in 2018 plans to invest $100 billion into expanding its production of plastics and related petrochemical products. CEO Amin Nasser emphasized that petrochemicals—materials derived from fossil fuels and comprising up to 80 percent plastics—are poised to drive nearly half of the growth in oil demand by 2050, as rising populations and consumer purchasing power increase demand for plastic products in sectors ranging from packaging to construction and automotive.
Saudi Aramco’s ambitions are not isolated; the company has since acquired a majority stake in SABIC, the Saudi petrochemical giant, and has expanded its operations globally, from China to South Korea to the United States. By the 2030s, Aramco aims to convert more than a third of its oil production into petrochemicals, effectively tripling its output in this sector within 15 years. ExxonMobil, another major industry player and the world’s largest producer of single-use plastics, has also forecasted an 80 percent increase in petrochemical production by 2050, despite acknowledging that electric vehicles will likely reduce oil demand for transportation fuels.
This pivot to plastics is understood by analysts as a strategy to circumvent the energy transition away from fossil fuels. As demand for oil as a fuel declines, the industry is betting that plastics—nearly all of which are made from fossil fuels—will provide a “reliable destination” for their products, ensuring continued profitability. This approach, however, comes with significant environmental and health costs that are increasingly coming under scrutiny by the public and some policymakers.
Plastic pollution has become ubiquitous and deeply problematic. Since the end of World War II, plastic production has skyrocketed, from a mere 2 million metric tons in 1950 to over 500 million metric tons annually today. A staggering 8.3 billion metric tons had been produced by 2015, rising to more than 10 billion metric tons in recent years. Approximately three-quarters of all plastic ever made has become waste, with only 9 percent recycled, 12 percent incinerated, and 79 percent discarded into landfills or the environment. If these trends persist, plastic production could reach 1.1 billion metric tons annually by 2050, enough to cover the entire United States in an ankle-deep layer of plastic.
Single-use items constitute about half of all plastic consumption, often discarded moments after use. Globally, a million plastic bottles are purchased every minute, and five trillion plastic bags are used annually. In the United States alone, more than 560 billion disposable food-service items were consumed in 2016. Beyond packaging, plastic is entrenched in every facet of modern life, from construction materials and clothing to medical devices and automotive components. However, the vast array of plastic types—numbering in the thousands, each with unique chemical additives—means many contain substances harmful to human health and ecosystems. Thousands of chemicals used in plastics pose health risks, and safety data is lacking for many others.
Plastic’s environmental persistence is alarming. It does not biodegrade; instead, it fragments into micro- and nanoplastics that have infiltrated the air, water, soil, and even human bodies. Studies have documented microplastics in human tissues such as kidneys, livers, brains, and placentas. Some research links microplastic accumulation to diseases like dementia and cardiovascular problems. The environmental footprint of plastic is also substantial, with the production and disposal of single-use plastics generating more greenhouse gas emissions than the entire United Kingdom.
The environmental and health harms of plastic production are especially acute in regions where petrochemical plants are concentrated. In the United States, the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Baton Rouge—often called “Cancer Alley”—hosts about 150 refineries and chemical plants. This area, historically agricultural and home to many African American communities descended from enslaved people, now faces high levels of toxic pollution. Residents report health problems and have organized to oppose expansions like the $9.4 billion Formosa Plastics complex proposed near St. James Parish, Louisiana. The plant would emit large quantities of carcinogens, worsening already severe health risks. Despite community opposition, proponents cite job