In a significant escalation of pressure on Russia over its ongoing war in Ukraine, US President Donald Trump has announced what he described as "tremendous" new sanctions targeting two of Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. These sanctions mark the first direct economic penalties imposed by the Trump administration on Russia since the invasion began, signaling a noteworthy shift in US strategy aimed at compelling Moscow to end the conflict.
The sanctions, imposed through the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), effectively blacklist Rosneft and Lukoil, two titans of the Russian oil industry that collectively account for nearly half of Russia’s crude oil exports. Rosneft, a state-controlled enterprise led by Igor Sechin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, alone produces almost half of Russia’s oil, which itself represents about 6% of global oil output. Lukoil, while privately owned, is also a major contributor to Russia’s oil exports. Together, the two companies export approximately 3.1 million barrels of oil per day, underscoring their critical role in funding the Kremlin’s operations, including its military activities in Ukraine.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that these sanctions are designed to target the financial resources fueling Russia’s "war machine." The move represents a departure from the more cautious approach previously taken by the US and its allies, who had been hesitant to impose direct sanctions on Russia’s energy sector out of concern for potential ripple effects on the global economy. However, growing frustration with Russia’s refusal to end what Bessent called a "senseless war" has pushed the Trump administration to take this bolder step.
President Trump himself has made ending the conflict in Ukraine a priority in recent months, particularly following his involvement in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza. Despite his campaign promises to quickly resolve the Ukraine crisis, tangible progress has been elusive. A summit with Putin in August failed to produce any breakthroughs, and Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Moscow’s intransigence. He explained his decision to impose sanctions by saying, "Every time I speak to Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they don’t go anywhere. I just felt it was time. We waited a long time."
The sanctions also come shortly after the UK implemented similar measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, and just one day after the White House announced the shelving of a planned follow-up meeting with Putin in Budapest. The timing suggests a coordinated effort among Western powers to ramp up economic pressure on Russia as diplomatic efforts stall.
Experts and former US diplomats have weighed in on the implications of these sanctions. While they acknowledge the economic pain the measures will inflict on Russia, they caution against expecting an immediate shift in Putin’s stance or a quick end to the war. John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, told the BBC that the sanctions "will certainly hurt the Russian economy, which is already stumbling," but he noted it would be "naive to expect this step alone [will] push Putin to actually make peace in good faith." Instead, Herbst argued that sustained economic and military pressure over several months would be necessary to compel meaningful negotiations.
Similarly, Bill Taylor, another former ambassador, described the sanctions as a clear signal to Putin that he must come to the negotiating table. Yet, he also implied that these measures are just a first step in a longer process.
Throughout the conflict, Trump has repeatedly proposed freezing the fighting along the current frontlines, suggesting that territorial control be maintained as is—a position rejected by Russia. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reaffirmed Russia’s demand that Ukrainian troops withdraw from parts of the eastern Donbas region still under Kyiv’s control, illustrating the ongoing impasse. The new sanctions, which strike at a vital pillar of Russia’s economy, could potentially push Moscow to reconsider its position, though analysts predict little immediate change on the battlefield.
Dr. Stuart Rollo, a research fellow at the University of Sydney’s Centre for International Security Studies, outlined the dual goals of the sanctions: to materially degrade Russia’s capacity to wage war and to coerce it into accepting peace terms by leveraging the escalating economic and social costs. He suggested that while the sanctions are unlikely to significantly impact Russia’s industrial war capability in the short term, they might influence Moscow’s willingness to negotiate if a careful diplomatic balance is maintained between the consequences of continued conflict and the incentives for peace.
Michael Raska, Assistant Professor