In Week 8 of the NFL season, Monday Night Football will feature a highly anticipated matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Washington Commanders at the iconic Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is slated for 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time. According to the latest NFL betting odds, the Chiefs enter the game as clear favorites, with a 10.5-point spread in their favor. Additionally, the over/under for the total points scored in the contest is set at 48, reflecting expectations of a competitive but potentially high-scoring affair.
While the Chiefs have multiple stars on their roster, tight end Travis Kelce has continued to stand out not only for his on-field contributions but also for his off-field news, having recently announced his engagement to pop superstar Taylor Swift. Despite the media buzz, Kelce remains a vital component of Kansas City’s offense in 2025. He currently leads the Chiefs in receiving yards and has been gaining momentum as the season progresses. Over his last three games, Kelce has tallied an impressive 16 receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his reliability and big-play ability.
Kelce’s impact on Monday Night Football games, in particular, is well documented. Over the course of 17 appearances on Monday nights, he has averaged nearly 77 receiving yards per game, underscoring his knack for performing on prime-time stages. This consistency has caught the attention of bettors and analysts alike. The latest player props for the upcoming Chiefs vs. Commanders game highlight Kelce as a strong candidate to surpass 50 receiving yards, with odds of +140. This prop bet is considered one of the top longshot picks for Week 8 and offers enticing value for those looking to capitalize on Kelce’s proven Monday night success.
For fans and bettors looking to maximize their Week 8 NFL picks, SportsLine’s Projection Model offers a data-driven approach that simulates every game 10,000 times to identify valuable betting opportunities. Since its inception, the model has generated more than $7,000 in hypothetical profits for players betting $100 on its top-rated NFL picks. Its recent form is particularly impressive, boasting a 43-28 record on top-rated selections dating back to the 2024 season. Following the model’s predictions at sportsbooks and betting sites has proven to be a profitable strategy for many.
One of the best longshot picks for Week 8 involves parlaying several player prop bets, which currently offer combined odds of +1655 at DraftKings (subject to change). Among these picks, Kelce’s over 50 receiving yards stands out. Not only has he exceeded this benchmark in each of his last three games, but he is also averaging 53.6 yards per game on the season. In his most recent Monday night outing against the Jacksonville Jaguars three weeks ago, he recorded seven catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. The model projects Kelce to finish Monday’s game with exactly 50 receiving yards, making this a compelling wager.
Another player to watch closely is Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has added a new dimension to his game in 2025 with his rushing ability. Although recently surpassed by running back Isiah Pacheco as the team’s leading rusher, Mahomes is enjoying his most active season on the ground. His four rushing touchdowns this year have already matched his career-high, and his average of 35.7 rushing yards per game exceeds his previous best by over 11 yards. This increased mobility has solidified his status as the frontrunner to win his third NFL MVP award. The model reflects confidence in Mahomes’ running prowess, projecting exactly 30 rushing yards for him in the upcoming game, which presents another valuable betting angle.
On the opposing side, the Washington Commanders have their own emerging star in running back Croskey-Merritt. Selected in the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft, Croskey-Merritt surprised many with his impressive offseason performance. His rapid rise forced the Commanders to trade longtime running back Brian Robinson Jr. to create more opportunities for the rookie. With Austin Ekeler sidelined early in the season, Croskey-Merritt has ascended to the top of Washington’s backfield depth chart. He has already found the end zone four times in seven games, making him a player to monitor closely in this game.
The model projects Croskey-Merritt to score approximately 0.46 touchdowns on