Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 4 storm on Sunday, October 26, 2025, raising serious concerns for severe weather impacts in parts of the Caribbean, particularly Jamaica, southern Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. The Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued warnings of potentially "life-threatening and catastrophic" flash flooding and landslides over the coming days, as the storm was forecast to move through the region. Although Melissa is not expected to pose a major threat to the mainland United States, it could become the strongest hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.
By Sunday night, the hurricane’s core was located roughly 125 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 310 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. At that time, Melissa’s maximum sustained winds had reached 145 miles per hour, with hurricane-force winds extending about 30 miles from the storm’s center and tropical storm-force winds stretching out to 195 miles. The storm was moving slowly westward at approximately 5 miles per hour.
Having achieved Category 4 status—a designation reserved for storms with sustained winds of 130 to 156 miles per hour—Melissa was classified as a major hurricane. The NHC projected that it would maintain this strength as it approached and made landfall in Jamaica later in the week. The forecast track indicated Melissa would move near or over Jamaica through the weekend into Tuesday, then pass across southeastern Cuba by Tuesday night, and continue toward the southeastern Bahamas by midweek.
One of the most significant threats from Melissa is the potential for a powerful storm surge. The NHC warned that when Melissa makes landfall, peak storm surges accompanied by destructive waves could reach between 9 to 13 feet above ground level. Such surges can cause widespread flooding and severe damage, particularly in coastal and low-lying areas.
Meteorologists have highlighted the particular vulnerability of Jamaica to the storm’s impacts. CBS News Philadelphia meteorologist Andrew Kozak pointed out that Jamaica’s mountainous terrain could exacerbate the situation by forcing moist air upwards, which increases rainfall intensity. This orographic effect often leads to heavier rain and greater risks of flooding and landslides. Kozak noted that if Melissa maintains its strength, it could become the most powerful hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, a devastating storm that resulted in 45 deaths and caused over $700 million in damages.
CBS News weather anchor Lonnie Quinn echoed these concerns, emphasizing the potential for “catastrophic rainfall” that could reach nearly three feet in some areas across Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. He warned that the mountainous regions in these areas are especially prone to mudslides triggered by the heavy rains. Quinn expressed particular concern for Jamaica, stating that the island was likely to bear the brunt of the storm’s fury, with winds possibly reaching 140 miles per hour.
In preparation for the storm’s arrival, authorities have issued multiple warnings across the affected regions. A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, signaling that hurricane conditions were expected within 36 hours. In Haiti, a tropical storm warning covered the area from north of Port-au-Prince to the border with the Dominican Republic. Several Cuban provinces—including Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin—were under hurricane warnings, while the province of Las Tunas was under a tropical storm warning.
The U.S. Naval Station at Guantanamo Bay took proactive measures to safeguard personnel and dependents by evacuating all “non-mission-essential” U.S. citizens from the base ahead of the storm. Evacuations were conducted in groups, with a deadline for completion set for Sunday morning. The station communicated evacuation protocols via social media, specifying that evacuees were permitted to bring one 40-pound bag and a carry-on item. Authorities advised evacuees to stand by for further instructions regarding departure times.
Rainfall forecasts for Melissa painted a stark picture of the potential devastation. The NHC predicted that up to 30 inches of rain could fall over parts of southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic, and Jamaica through Tuesday. Eastern Cuba was expected to receive up to 18 inches of rain. Such intense rainfall amounts raise the likelihood of catastrophic flash flooding and deadly landslides, particularly in southern Hispaniola—the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic—and Jamaica.
Meteorologists cautioned that while the heaviest rains were anticipated through Tuesday, additional heavy rainfall could