**A New Flu Season Approaches: What to Expect in the U.S. as Global Warnings Mount**
After enduring a particularly severe flu season last year, which set records for hospitalizations and deaths, medical professionals and public health officials in the United States are preparing for what could be yet another challenging winter. Recent trends abroad and tumultuous circumstances within American public health agencies are shaping expectations, raising concerns, and influencing strategies for the season ahead.
**International Warnings: Early Flu Surges in the U.K. and Japan**
This year, the first signals of a potentially difficult flu season are not coming from within the United States, but from overseas. In the United Kingdom, health authorities are already reporting an unusually early and notable rise in flu cases, especially among children and young adults—a demographic that can drive community transmission. Meanwhile, Japan has declared a full-blown flu epidemic. The surge of cases there has been so severe that some schools have closed early in an attempt to contain outbreaks, and the number of reported flu cases so far this season has far outpaced what is typical for this time of year.
These developments are being closely watched by American health experts, as patterns in the Southern Hemisphere or in other parts of the world sometimes foreshadow what might occur in the U.S. later in the year. However, flu remains a notoriously unpredictable virus, and many factors—including climate, vaccination rates, and population immunity—can influence the trajectory of each season.
**The U.S. Faces Uncertainty Amid Surveillance Issues**
In the United States, flu season typically begins its ascent in November, with cases peaking around February. This is also the time when other respiratory viruses, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and enteroviruses, circulate widely. However, there is growing concern that the usual systems for tracking and responding to flu outbreaks may be disrupted this year.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the nation’s main public health agency, has faced significant challenges in recent months, including job cuts and the looming threat of a government shutdown. These organizational disruptions could hinder the CDC’s ability to effectively monitor flu trends and communicate risks to the public.
Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, has expressed particular concern about the potential limitations in flu surveillance. Without robust data, health officials may not have a clear sense of where and how severely the flu is spreading, making it difficult to coordinate national vaccination campaigns, allocate resources, or respond to outbreaks in a timely manner. “Everything from outreach campaigns to more logistical efforts to actually get vaccines out could be affected,” Rasmussen warned. “That information just may not be available, so it will be very difficult to coordinate a national response.”
As of late September, the CDC’s most recent influenza report indicated minimal flu activity in the U.S. However, experts caution that this data might not reflect emerging trends, especially if surveillance capabilities are compromised.
**Remembering Last Year: A Season of Unprecedented Severity**
Last year’s flu season in the United States was among the worst in recent memory. According to the CDC, approximately 1.1 million people were hospitalized with flu-related illnesses—the highest rate in 14 years. Doctor visits for flu-like symptoms also reached their highest level in over a decade.
Tragically, the CDC estimates that between 38,000 and 99,000 Americans died as a result of the flu during the 2024-2025 season. Among children, the impact was especially dire: 280 pediatric deaths were reported, making it one of the deadliest years on record for this age group. Notably, at least three children died from flu in June and July—months that are typically outside the normal flu season—suggesting the virus lingered longer than usual.
These sobering statistics serve as a reminder of the flu’s potential to cause widespread illness and death, even in a world still grappling with the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.
**What Might This Flu Season Hold?**
Flu experts agree that predicting the severity and timing of any given flu season is difficult, given the virus’s capacity for change and the influence of numerous external factors. While the CDC, in late August, predicted that the upcoming flu season might be “more moderate” than last year’s, they also cautioned that certain age groups could still be hit hard, especially if vaccination rates remain low.
The main flu strains currently circulating—H1N