In late October 2025, Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified into a devastating Category 5 storm, posing a severe threat to the Caribbean, particularly Jamaica. This hurricane stands out not only for its extreme wind speeds but also for its slow movement, a combination that is expected to unleash catastrophic rainfall across the region. As the storm lingers, some areas of Jamaica could receive up to 40 inches of rain over just a few days—a volume so immense it could cover nearly half a football field with water to the depth of an Olympic swimming pool. The consequences of such intense rainfall include flash floods and landslides, which are especially dangerous given the island’s mountainous terrain.
While hurricanes are often associated primarily with their powerful winds and storm surges, the rainfall they bring can be equally or more perilous. Historical events such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017 demonstrated this clearly when it set the record for the most rainfall from a single storm in the continental United States, dropping more than 48 inches of rain near Houston. Similarly, Hurricane Helene in 2024 caused severe flooding and landslides in the Appalachian region by dropping upwards of two feet of rain shortly after an earlier heavy rainfall event. These examples underscore the often-underappreciated risk posed by torrential rains during hurricanes.
By the afternoon of October 27, Hurricane Melissa had reached peak sustained wind speeds of 175 miles per hour, solidifying its status as a Category 5 hurricane. This rapid intensification occurred over the preceding weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which continued its operations despite a prolonged federal government shutdown lasting three weeks. Although the hurricane’s strength may fluctuate as it nears Jamaica, it is expected to remain a major hurricane, eventually making landfall in Cuba by midweek before moving back out into the Atlantic. Forecasters currently assess the risk to the U.S. mainland as low, with little likelihood of direct impact.
One of the most concerning aspects of Hurricane Melissa is its sluggish pace. The storm is moving at a mere three miles per hour, a factor that greatly amplifies the dangers it poses. Slow-moving hurricanes subject affected areas to prolonged exposure to destructive conditions, increasing the severity of their impacts. Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, emphasizes that “getting hit by a hurricane that’s not moving is so much worse” because it prolongs the storm’s assault on any given location. This slow crawl over the Caribbean islands means that the hazards associated with Melissa—intense winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge—will persist for an extended period.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that parts of Jamaica and the southern regions of Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, will experience between 15 and 30 inches of rainfall, with some areas in Jamaica possibly receiving as much as 40 inches. Cuba is also expected to see substantial rainfall amounts, with forecasts predicting up to 20 inches. These figures highlight the widespread and severe nature of the precipitation threat posed by Melissa. In addition to rainfall, life-threatening storm surges are anticipated for Jamaica, with peak surge heights projected between nine and thirteen feet above ground level, further compounding the storm’s destructive potential.
The increasing severity of rainfall events linked to hurricanes like Melissa is closely tied to broader climate change trends. As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture, which in turn leads to heavier rainfall during storms. This “fingerprint” of climate change, as McNoldy describes it, results in more intense and frequent rain events associated with hurricanes and other types of storms. The implications for vulnerable regions such as the Caribbean are dire, as the combination of rising temperatures and changing weather patterns fuels more dangerous storm behavior.
Jamaica and Hispaniola’s mountainous topography exacerbates the risks from Melissa’s heavy rains. Mountainous landscapes are particularly susceptible to flash floods and landslides because water naturally flows toward the lowest points, funneling rapidly and causing sudden, destructive floods. The steep terrain can also enhance rainfall through a process known as orographic lift, where moist air masses are forced upward by mountain slopes, cooling and releasing even more precipitation. This phenomenon contributed to the severe flooding seen during Hurricane Helene in Appalachia, and it is expected to play a similar role in the Caribbean as Melissa makes its slow passage.
The combined effects of intense rainfall, steep and vulnerable terrain, and prolonged storm exposure create a perilous situation. McNoldy