In recent developments in the Middle East, President Donald Trump has embarked on a significant overseas visit to Saudi Arabia, aiming to forge new diplomatic relations and secure pivotal trade agreements. This trip marks President Trump's first major international engagement since assuming office again, and it comes at a critical time for U.S. foreign policy in the region.
A key focus of this visit is the potential for renewed relations with Syria, a nation emerging from a devastating 14-year civil war. The Syrian conflict, which began in 2011, resulted in over 500,000 deaths and left the nation in turmoil. However, Syria's new interim President, Ahmad al-Sharaa, presents a unique opportunity for the U.S. to re-establish ties with a country previously considered an adversary.
Al-Sharaa, who led the Islamist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to victory over the Assad regime, is now steering Syria through a transitional period. His leadership, though controversial due to his past affiliations, offers a chance for Syria to pivot from its previous reliance on Iran and align more closely with Western nations. This shift is seen as a strategic opportunity by experts like Natasha Hall from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who emphasizes the importance of the U.S. seizing this moment to influence Syria's trajectory.
The possibility of lifting sanctions on Syria, imposed under Bashar al-Assad's regime, is a significant aspect of President Trump's discussions. While these sanctions have been crippling for Syria, there is cautious optimism that easing them could foster cooperation on intelligence and business fronts. However, former U.S. Ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, advises caution, noting that while al-Sharaa may not pursue terrorism as in the past, the Syrian government remains weak and divided.
Despite these challenges, al-Sharaa's administration has demonstrated a willingness to collaborate with U.S. intelligence agencies, notably assisting in thwarting ISIS plots and capturing key figures like ISIS commander Abu al-Harith al-Iraqi. This cooperation is seen as a positive step towards building trust between the two nations.
Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, has been instrumental in facilitating dialogue between Syria and the U.S. He recently engaged in extensive talks with President al-Sharaa, exploring the potential for President Trump to meet with the Syrian leader during his Gulf visit. This meeting could be pivotal in reshaping U.S.-Syrian relations, given Syria's desire to establish a strategic partnership grounded in mutual interests.
However, the path to renewed relations is fraught with obstacles. Al-Sharaa's past leadership of HTS, a designated foreign terrorist organization, complicates diplomatic efforts. Skeptics like Caroline Rose from The New Lines Institute caution against prematurely lifting restrictions, fearing it could undermine U.S. credibility. Despite HTS's gradual distancing from terrorist affiliations and adoption of moderate elements, concerns about its sustained commitment to change persist.
Domestically, Syria faces significant challenges as it navigates its transitional period. The temporary constitution signed by al-Sharaa promises fundamental freedoms and equal rights, yet it retains elements of Islamist rule. The concentration of power in the presidency, allowing for unilateral declarations of emergency, echoes the authoritarian practices of the Assad era, raising concerns among Syrians wary of repeating past oppressions.
The new administration's ability to maintain civil peace is tested by ongoing sectarian tensions, highlighted by recent deadly clashes involving remnants of Assad's regime. The complexities of Syria's ethnic divides and the government's control over armed factions remain pressing issues for al-Sharaa's government.
As President Trump continues his Middle East tour, the potential for a landmark deal with Syria looms large. Such an agreement could redefine regional dynamics, offering Syria a path to peace and stability while allowing the U.S. to curtail the influence of adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China. However, achieving this "deal of the century" requires careful navigation of the intricate geopolitical landscape and a balanced approach to Syria's fragile internal situation.
In sum, President Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and the possibility of renewed U.S.-Syria relations represent a critical juncture in Middle Eastern diplomacy. While opportunities for progress exist, they are tempered by the region's complex history and the delicate balance of power within Syria itself. As the world watches these developments unfold, the potential for a new chapter in U.S.-Syria relations hangs in the balance, contingent on careful diplomacy and strategic foresight.