The tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump on imported aluminum have significantly impacted global trade and increased costs for American consumers, yet they have not succeeded in revitalizing domestic aluminum production. Instead of encouraging the reopening of aluminum smelters in the U.S., the tariffs have resulted in closures due to rising costs, especially in electricity, which is a critical input for aluminum production. The 25% tariffs on imported aluminum have dramatically influenced the physical aluminum market. Although the London Metal Exchange provides a global benchmark for aluminum prices, the actual cost of acquiring aluminum also includes regional delivery premiums. In the U.S., these premiums largely reflect the tariff costs, creating a stark contrast with European premiums, which have been reported to be over 30% lower year-to-date. This discrepancy is directly attributed to U.S. trade policy. Ultimately, the increased costs associated with these tariffs are passed down to consumers. According to Trond Olaf Christophersen, the Chief Financial Officer of Hydro, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, the additional costs from tariffs are transferred to downstream users, resulting in higher prices for U.S. consumers. Hydro, previously known as Norsk Hydro, has experienced a significant drop in its share prices, falling by around 17% since the tariffs were implemented. The downstream effects of these tariffs are already visible. For instance, Thule Group, a customer of Hydro that manufactures cargo boxes for cars, announced a price increase of about 10%. Although most of their products sold in the U.S. are manufactured locally, the rising prices of raw materials like steel and aluminum necessitate this hike. Despite the tariffs leading to price increases in the U.S., they have not successfully spurred a revival of domestic smelting, which is an energy-intensive process for producing primary aluminum. The primary challenge remains the lack of access to competitively priced, long-term power contracts, which are crucial for aluminum smelting. Ami Shivkar, a principal analyst of aluminum markets at Wood Mackenzie, highlighted that high energy costs are a significant factor in the overall production cost of a smelter. In contrast to Canadian, Norwegian, and Middle Eastern smelters that secure long-term energy contracts or operate captive power generation facilities, U.S. smelter capacity largely relies on short-term power contracts. This reliance places U.S. smelters at a disadvantage, with energy costs for U.S. aluminum smelters being approximately $550 per tonne, compared to $290 per tonne for Canadian smelters. Recent incidents involving major U.S. producers emphasize the vulnerability of U.S. aluminum production to power costs. In March 2023, Alcoa Corp announced the permanent closure of its Intalco smelter, which had been idle since 2020, citing a lack of access to competitively priced power as a reason for its non-competitiveness. Similarly, in June 2022, Century Aluminum was forced to temporarily idle its massive Hawesville, Kentucky smelter, North America's largest producer of military-grade aluminum, due to skyrocketing energy costs. The power costs required to run the facility had more than tripled the historical average, necessitating a curtailment expected to last nine to twelve months until prices normalized. The demand for electricity from non-industrial sources has also risen, further complicating the situation for the aluminum industry. Christophersen pointed out the competition from the tech sector, which has a much higher ability to pay for power due to their high double-digit profit margins, compared to the often low single-digit margins at aluminum producers. The tech industry's consumption of new energy production capacity, from sources like nuclear, wind, or solar, has limited the availability of competitively priced power for aluminum producers. Christophersen emphasized that, for Hydro to consider building a smelter in the U.S., access to cheap power is essential, which currently seems unattainable in the market. The lack of competitive power prices is a significant deterrent for investing in new smelting capacity in the U.S. While the tariffs have not stimulated domestic primary production, they have undoubtedly led to a reshuffling of global trade flows. When access to the U.S. market becomes more costly or restricted, metal flows are redirected to other destinations. Christophersen mentioned a period when high U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum made exporting to Europe more attractive for Canadian producers. This shift resulted in more European metals entering the U.S. market to fill the demand gap left by