**Summary: Immigration Trends and Political Responses in the UK**
Immigration has emerged as a significant social and demographic development in the UK during the 21st century. It also highlights one of the most noticeable political shortcomings when comparing governmental promises to actual outcomes. Regardless of personal perspectives on immigration, examining the trends over the past few decades is crucial for understanding the current landscape.
For the past 30 years, immigration to the UK has consistently outpaced emigration. In contrast, the preceding 30 years saw net migration—defined as the difference between those arriving and those leaving—fluctuate around zero, indicating a balance. However, starting in 1994, net migration began to rise, notably during the Labour government's term in the early 2000s. This increase surpassed public estimates, particularly following the EU expansion, when the UK opted not to impose limits on new arrivals.
By the time the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition assumed power in 2010, immigration had become a pressing political issue. The Conservative Party pledged to reduce net migration to 1990s levels—tens of thousands annually instead of hundreds of thousands. However, this goal proved elusive.
According to a House of Commons Library research paper, from 1998 to 2020, immigration consistently exceeded emigration by over 100,000 people annually. This sustained high level of immigration made it a focal point during the 2016 EU referendum. With Brexit's eventual implementation, UK political leaders could no longer attribute immigration levels to EU policies, as freedom of movement with EU member states ceased. The Westminster government now possessed the authority to regulate immigration independently.
In 2021, the UK introduced a new immigration policy, incorporating a points-based system for work visas. Contrary to expectations stemming from the EU referendum, net migration figures surged. By June 2023, net migration reached 906,000, and it was 728,000 by June 2024. Upcoming data releases are expected to show a notable decline in net migration for 2024, partly due to a significant drop in visas issued the previous year.
Currently, the UK government is focusing on legal immigration, although discussions on illegal immigration are anticipated soon. The government has identified three key priorities: secure borders, healthcare, and economic prosperity. A senior government official described the current net migration numbers as "beyond unsustainable," highlighting the political necessity of reducing these figures. The government aims to lower immigration without negatively impacting the economy, particularly by facilitating quicker permanent residency for highly skilled and high-earning immigrants.
A White Paper, developed over the past several months, outlines the government's immigration strategy. Immediate actions include reducing the number of lower-skilled and care workers entering the UK by 50,000. Additional measures are expected to be detailed in an immigration bill at the next King's Speech. The government's ultimate goal is to demonstrate a downward trend in net migration by the next general election, anticipated in 2028 or 2029. The credibility of the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party, along with other political entities like Reform UK, will depend on their success in addressing immigration concerns.
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